President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen into negative territory in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District—where a special election is scheduled for next week—driven in large part by eroding support among independent voters, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The survey offers an encouraging sign for Democrats aiming to make inroads in a traditionally Republican-leaning district. The special election features Democratic state legislator Aftyn Behn facing Republican military veteran Matt Van Epps. While Van Epps is still considered the favorite, recent polling suggests the contest could be more competitive than expected in a district that spans parts of Nashville, its suburbs, and nearby rural communities.
The findings also highlight growing frustration with the Trump administration, even in areas he decisively won over then-Vice President Kamala Harris last November. Trump carried the district by more than 20 points. He continues to enjoy strong backing from Republican voters there, but the poll shows that independents—a pivotal voting bloc—have turned against him. That shift could influence not only next week’s race but also the broader battle for control of Congress in the 2026 midterms.
What To Know
An Emerson College poll found that a slight majority of voters in the district now disapprove of Trump’s performance in office. After returning to the White House in January with solid approval numbers, his standing has gradually declined amid mounting concerns about the economy and the rising cost of living.
According to the poll, 49 percent of respondents said they disapprove of the job Trump is doing, while 47 percent approve. Among independent voters, disapproval climbed to 59 percent, compared with 34 percent who gave him a positive rating.
Support among Republicans remains robust, mirroring national trends: 88 percent of GOP voters in the district approve of his job performance, while 8 percent disapprove. Fewer than 4 percent of Democrats said they approve of Trump’s performance, with 95 percent expressing disapproval.
On the congressional race, the survey showed Behn trailing Van Epps by a narrow margin—49 percent to 47 percent. The two candidates are running to succeed former Representative Mark Green, who left Congress earlier this year for a job in the private sector.
When asked about top issues, 38 percent of voters identified the economy as the most pressing concern in Tennessee. Another 15 percent pointed to housing affordability, and 13 percent cited threats to democracy and health care as their primary worries.
The poll surveyed 600 likely voters between November 22 and 24 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Nationally, other surveys also show Trump’s approval sliding as his term progresses. In a recent YouGov/Economist poll, 38 percent of Americans said they approve of the job he is doing, while 57 percent said they disapprove. That poll questioned 1,677 adults from November 21 to 24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College polling, wrote in the poll memo: “President Trump’s approval rating is a stark reversal from last November, when he carried the district by 22 points. The decline is driven by independents, among whom 59% disapprove and just 34% approve.”
CNN data analyst Harry Enten posted on X on Tuesday: “Trump’s support with GOP voters remains, to quote Bob Seger, like a rock. 87% approve of him, equal to 6 months ago & higher than any other 21st century prez had within their own party at this point in term 2. MTG knew going up vs. Trump in a primary is like facing a buzzsaw.”
What Happens Next
Election Day for the Tennessee special election is set for December 2.
