Washington, D.C. — President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plan could hit a key segment of American businesses with $82.3 billion in direct costs, according to a new report by the JPMorganChase Institute. The burden would fall primarily on mid-sized companies—those with revenues between $10 million and $1 billion—that collectively employ about a third of the U.S. private-sector workforce.
To absorb the financial blow, companies may have to raise prices, freeze hiring, lay off workers, or accept thinner profit margins, the report found.
These mid-sized firms, particularly in retail and wholesale sectors, are more reliant on imports from countries like China, India, and Thailand. The study directly challenges Trump’s repeated claim that foreign exporters, not American businesses, would shoulder the cost of the tariffs.
Tariffs’ Real-World Impact
Though overall inflation has remained relatively stable, large corporations such as Walmart, Amazon, Costco, and Williams-Sonoma managed to soften the blow by stockpiling inventory before the tariffs kicked in. But as the July 9 deadline for finalizing new tariff rates approaches, many firms can no longer delay the impact.
Trump initially triggered market jitters in April with broad tariff announcements but offered a 90-day negotiation window. Most imports were hit with a baseline 10% tariff, while goods from China, Mexico, and Canada face steeper rates. Additionally, steel and aluminum are now taxed at 50%.
Had the original April tariffs remained unchanged, the projected cost to companies could have reached $187.6 billion, according to the analysis. Under current policy, the $82.3 billion cost translates to $2,080 per employee, or roughly 3.1% of annual payroll—a figure that includes both importers and non-importers.
“Everything’s Going Well,” Trump Says
Speaking Tuesday, President Trump downplayed concerns, saying only: “Everything’s going well.”
He added that setting fixed tariff rates was more practical than continuing to negotiate with dozens of nations. So far, only the United Kingdom has signed a framework agreement. Trump also announced a deal with Vietnam, which includes:
- A 20% tariff on all Vietnamese goods exported to the U.S.
- A 40% tariff on transshipped goods (especially those originating in China).
- In return, zero tariffs for U.S. exports to Vietnam, which Trump said would help American SUVs break into that market.
India is reportedly close to finalizing its own agreement.
Rising Inflation Pressure
There’s growing consensus that tariff-driven inflation is a looming threat. Goldman Sachs estimates that 60% of tariff costs are being passed on to consumers. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Federal Reserve reports businesses are likely to pass along about half the costs from tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% without seeing major declines in demand.
JPMorgan’s analysis echoes these concerns, especially for retailers and wholesalers operating on razor-thin profit margins. Many will likely have to shift costs to consumers to stay afloat.
However, the study also suggests a potential upside: tariffs might create openings for domestic manufacturers to grow as alternative suppliers. Still, the researchers caution that businesses must prepare for a wide range of trade outcomes.
Uncertainty Clouds the Outlook
Tariff policy remains volatile. Trump abruptly paused negotiations with Canada, only to resume them once Ottawa scrapped its proposed digital services tax. He’s also threatening new tariffs on Japan, unless Tokyo increases rice imports from the U.S.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking on Fox News, said Trump’s recent trade concessions have been met with approval by career officials at the U.S. Trade Representative’s office and other federal agencies.
Next week, the administration is expected to unveil the structure of upcoming trade deals—though focus will also shift to the massive tax cuts package just passed by the Senate. Trump has given lawmakers until Friday to pass the multi-trillion-dollar plan, which the White House hopes to partially fund through increased tariff revenues.
In the meantime, businesses across the country are bracing for higher costs and tougher decisions.
