Cuts to the agency’s schemes will lead to more fatalities from diseases like AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis, and a higher mortality rate among women and young children.
Massive funding cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) could lead to the deaths of approximately 14 million people globally over the next five years, according to a new study published in The Lancet medical journal.
Children under five are expected to account for nearly a third of those deaths—around 4.5 million—as the consequences of slashed global health programs ripple across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
“Unless the abrupt funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are reversed, a staggering number of avoidable deaths could occur by 2030,” the report stated.
Researchers warned the impact would extend far beyond the death toll, saying the cuts threaten to undo decades of progress in global health and development, particularly in African nations. “These cuts risk reversing hard-won gains in health, education, and economic growth,” the authors added.
The study credits USAID with saving over 91 million lives since its inception, with one-third of those being children. The agency’s efforts have been directly linked to:
- A 65% drop in HIV/AIDS deaths (25.5 million lives saved)
- Prevention of 8 million malaria deaths
- 11 million deaths avoided from diarrheal diseases
- Nearly 5 million tuberculosis fatalities averted
Founded in 1961, USAID has long played a critical role in delivering humanitarian aid and promoting development in countries aligned with U.S. strategic interests. But in 2025, the agency became one of the earliest and hardest-hit targets of cost-cutting measures under the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), once led by Elon Musk.
The administration made clear its skepticism of foreign aid spending. By March, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that over 80% of USAID programs had been shut down following a six-week internal review, leaving only around 1,000 projects still active.
Despite the cuts, the U.S. remains the world’s largest single donor of foreign aid, contributing around $61 billion last year—roughly 38% of global assistance. USAID itself has long been the world’s largest provider of humanitarian and development aid.
Between 2017 and 2020, the agency responded to more than 240 global crises and natural disasters. In 2016 alone, it provided food aid to over 53 million people across 47 countries.
The Lancet study analyzed mortality data from 133 countries supported by USAID between 2001 and 2021, underscoring the life-saving impact of its work and the devastating consequences of withdrawing that support.
