The United States may be on track for the largest one-year decline in murders ever recorded, according to crime data analyst Jeff Asher.
Asher, the co-founder of AH Datalytics, said the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI)—a collection of monthly crime data from hundreds of law enforcement agencies nationwide—shows murder has fallen by about 19.8 percent from January through October compared to 2024.
“A roughly 20 percent drop in murder in 2025, as is suggested by the current data, would be by far the largest decline ever recorded, eclipsing the decline in 2024—currently pegged at -15 percent by the FBI, but that’s subject to a likely upward revision next year,” Asher wrote in his Substack blog.
Why It Matters
The decline comes as President Donald Trump has emphasized combating violent crime since returning to the White House in January. His administration has deployed the National Guard to several Democrat-led cities as part of its broader crackdown on illegal immigration and crime—moves that have prompted backlash and legal challenges.
At the same time, analysts note the drop appears to be part of a multi-year shift rather than a sudden, isolated change. Homicides spiked during the pandemic, but Asher wrote that this year’s decline “continues a trend that began in 2023, accelerated in 2024, and likely became historic in 2025.”
What To Know
RTCI data is currently available only through October. Based on a sample of 570 agencies, the index shows 5,912 murders through October this year, compared with 7,369 over the same period in 2024.
Several major cities that recorded high homicide totals last year are showing sharp declines so far in 2025, according to Asher. Birmingham, Alabama, saw the largest drop, down 49 percent. Other decreases included Baltimore (down 30.9 percent), Chicago (down 28.8 percent), New York City (down 20.9 percent), Atlanta (down 26.3 percent), and Philadelphia (down 15.8 percent).
Not every city is moving in the same direction. Milwaukee recorded an 11.3 percent increase, while Los Angeles rose 5.3 percent and Kansas City increased 6.2 percent.
Asher argued that city-by-city data underscores how unusual the national decline may be.
He wrote: “New Orleans is on pace for the fewest murders since 1970. New York City reported the fewest shootings ever recorded (though the start of recording is probably the 1990s). Numerous cities recorded the lowest murders through November since the 1960s, including Detroit (since 1964), Baltimore (1962), Philadelphia (1966), Oakland (1967), and San Francisco (likely since at least 1942).”
What People Are Saying
Jeff Asher wrote that overall, there “were likely around 12,000 fewer people murdered in the United States in 2024 and 2025 than in 2020 and 2021. That is tremendous progress that should be celebrated, while acknowledging that 14,000 or so murders this year in the United States is still far too many.”
The Department of Homeland Security wrote on X: “Here at DHS we’ve been operating by this radical idea that removing murderers from our country would bring down the murder rate. Who could have guessed it would work?”
FBI Director Kash Patel wrote on X: “U.S. murders on pace for largest one-year drop on record—not an accident. @realDonaldTrump’s policy letting good cops be cops WORKS. Lives being saved every single day under this administration with great local partners across the country. And more work to do.”
Elon Musk wrote on X: “Removing murderers from the streets works wonders.”
What Happens Next
The FBI is expected to release official violent crime data for 2025 in the latter half of next year. Asher noted that RTCI estimates have historically tracked closely with FBI figures, though the federal numbers are considered the official benchmark.
