Vice President J.D. Vance has emerged as the dominant front-runner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, according to a new Emerson College Polling survey released Friday.
Vance garnered 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, putting him far ahead of his closest challengers. Secretary of State Marco Rubio came in a distant second with 12%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 9%. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent, polled at 5%. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley each received 2%.
Six other potential contenders registered at 1% or less. Meanwhile, 17% of respondents said they were undecided, and 4% preferred a candidate not listed.
The results mark a notable surge for Vance since Emerson’s last hypothetical 2028 GOP primary poll in November, when he led with 30%, compared to 5% for DeSantis and 3% for former 2024 contender Vivek Ramaswamy. At that time, half of Republican voters remained undecided.
“Vance has solidified his position as the clear front-runner,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling. He noted Vance’s strong support among male Republican voters (52%) and voters over 60.
While former President Donald Trump has offered praise for several potential successors, he has stopped short of endorsing any one candidate. In a February interview with Fox News, Trump said it was “too early” to name a 2028 favorite, though he called Vance and others “very capable.”
More recently, during an appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press, Trump listed Vance and Rubio as key figures who could carry forward the “Make America Great Again” agenda. “I think [Vance is] a fantastic, brilliant guy,” Trump said. “Marco is great. There’s a lot of them that are great.”
The Emerson survey was conducted June 24–25 among 1,000 registered voters, including 416 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for Republican responses is ±4.8 percentage points.
