Vice President JD Vance holds a narrow lead over three prominent Democrats seen as potential 2028 presidential contenders, according to a new Emerson College poll released Friday.
The survey—conducted July 21–22 among 1,400 U.S. voters—shows Vance edging out former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in hypothetical head-to-head matchups. The poll carries a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points.
Why It Matters
As President Donald Trump’s running mate and current vice president, Vance is widely viewed as a leading Republican prospect for 2028. While the Democratic field remains unsettled, top figures are already laying groundwork through fundraising, national travel, and efforts to raise their public profiles. Though early polling isn’t conclusive, it offers a glimpse into voter sentiment more than three years before Election Day.
By the Numbers
- Vance vs. Buttigieg: 44% to 43%
- Vance vs. Newsom: 45% to 42%
- Vance vs. Ocasio-Cortez: 44% to 41%
Buttigieg, who now lives in Michigan, sparked 2028 speculation after declining to run for office in the state this year. Newsom, meanwhile, has made recent appearances in early-primary state South Carolina. Ocasio-Cortez has not indicated any plans to run for president but is rumored to be considering a Senate challenge to Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
Notably, the Emerson poll did not include former Vice President Kamala Harris—often viewed as a potential Democratic contender—who is reportedly weighing a run for California governor.
In comparison, a June poll from Overton Insights showed Harris leading Vance slightly, 45% to 42%. That survey included 1,200 registered voters with a ±2.77% margin of error.
Trump Job Approval
The Emerson poll also found voters split on President Trump’s performance:
- 46% approve
- 47% disapprove
What People Are Saying
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted:
“A key takeaway from the ballot tests is that about 13% of the electorate remains persuadable, while the other 87% have already settled on a party preference.”
In May, Buttigieg remarked in Iowa:
“Democrats do not have the best brand around here or in a lot of places. There’s a lot of reasons for that—some fair, and some not fair.”
In June, Newsom told The Wall Street Journal:
“I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.”
What’s Next
The 2028 presidential field will likely remain fluid until after the 2026 midterms, but behind-the-scenes maneuvering is already underway. As the primaries draw closer, prospective candidates on both sides are expected to solidify their plans—and public interest will only grow from here.
Newsweek has reached out to Vice President Vance and all three Democrats for comment.
