President Donald Trump is facing fresh political headwinds as support from independent voters — a key voting bloc — begins to erode.
According to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Trump’s net approval among independents hit a second-term low this week, with disapproval climbing past 60% for the first time since he returned to office. The shift comes amid a broader slide in his overall approval rating throughout June.
The trend is particularly concerning for Republicans because independents were a major factor in Trump’s 2024 victory. According to Pew Research, while Trump and then–Vice President Kamala Harris tied among independents last year, that represented a 9-point swing toward Trump compared to 2020.
But recent polling suggests that support is slipping. YouGov, Quinnipiac, and Emerson College surveys all show Trump underwater with independents — some by more than 30 points. A poll from the Independent Center found only 37% of registered voters approve of his job performance, with concerns growing around his handling of inflation, government spending, and political division.
Scott Tranter, DDHQ’s director of data science, said that while Trump remains strong with Republicans and consistently unpopular with Democrats, independents are the group shifting most. Still, he noted the movement isn’t yet massive — but if it grows, it could reshape 2026.
“Independents were key to Trump’s success in battleground states in 2024,” Tranter said. “But what really matters now is how that plays out for Republicans in Congress.”
Indeed, the 2026 midterms could hinge on how independents feel about Trump’s leadership — even though he won’t be on the ballot. And with his current approval hovering around 46%, the ripple effects could complicate GOP efforts to maintain or expand their majorities.
GOP strategist Christopher Nicholas warned that even small dips in a president’s approval can impact down-ballot races. “A Republican challenging Gov. Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania will have an easier time if Trump’s approval is at 48% instead of 42%,” he said.
Others, like Republican consultant Constantin Querard, remain optimistic. He pointed to a tied generic congressional ballot as a good sign. “That number is probably more important going into 2026,” he said. “Trump won’t be on the ballot, and House control is the real prize.”
Still, Querard acknowledged that Trump’s 2024 coalition — which expanded support among Black and Hispanic men and some independents — may be tough to sustain.
Lura Forcum, president of the Independent Center, said independents backed Trump last year mainly due to economic concerns — but they now feel disappointed.
“People are financially uncomfortable, and they want action, not ideology,” Forcum said. “If leaders can’t deliver, they lose support.”
Despite record-high stock market numbers, recent economic signals are mixed. Inflation remains sticky, and revised GDP figures show a shrinking economy in early 2025 — all of which has affected public perception.
Still, Forcum and other analysts agree there’s time for Trump to recover. But if independents continue to sour on his presidency, the GOP may struggle to hold its coalition together heading into 2026.
“This is the number Democrats want to see next year,” Tranter said. “But we’re not there yet. Whether it holds — that’s the real question.”
