President Donald Trump is encountering signs of weakening support from independent voters, a critical group that helped fuel his 2024 victory. According to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Trump’s net approval among independents has reached its lowest point of his second term, with disapproval now exceeding 60% for the first time since he took office. This dip in approval has contributed to a broader decline in his overall ratings throughout June.
Analysts suggest that frustration with Trump’s economic performance may be driving this shift. While Trump continues to hold steady support among Republicans and remains unpopular with Democrats, independents are proving more volatile—and potentially more decisive—as the 2026 midterms approach.
“Right now, the independents are the moving factor,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science at DDHQ. “He’s maintaining his base, Democrats still oppose him, so independents are where we’re seeing change.”
Independents played a crucial role in Trump’s 2024 victory, shifting nine points toward him compared to 2020, according to a new Pew Research report. But that trend appears to be reversing. While Trump’s approval among Republicans remains in the 80s and among Democrats in the low teens, independents’ approval has become increasingly erratic.
Although Tranter notes that the impact of independent voter shifts is smaller compared to base movements, the current decline is significant enough to raise concerns, particularly for down-ballot races.
Recent polling offers mixed signals. Surveys by YouGov/The Economist and Quinnipiac University show Trump underwater with independents by over 30 points, while Emerson College puts the margin at 12 points. A poll from the Independent Center shows only 37% of registered voters approve of Trump’s performance. That same survey revealed a sharp decline in confidence over economic priorities like reducing debt, lowering inflation, and cutting spending—issues Trump campaigned heavily on.
Lura Forcum, president of the Independent Center, said economic disappointment is key. “Voters want something to be done about the economy, and at this point, they are not really particular about the details,” she said. “If you can’t deliver, you probably can’t win them over.”
Trump’s economic record has been mixed. While the S&P 500 recently hit a record high, inflation indicators remain elevated, and revised GDP data showed a steeper-than-expected contraction in early 2025.
Despite the challenges, GOP strategists insist there’s still time to recover. Christopher Nicholas, a veteran political consultant, noted that lower presidential approval can weigh down candidates in statewide and congressional races. “A GOP challenger in Pennsylvania would have a much easier race if Trump’s approval is 48% instead of 42%,” he said.
Trump’s current average approval sits at 45.8%, per DDHQ.
Strategist Constantin Querard pointed to the congressional generic ballot—which currently shows a 45.1% tie between Democrats and Republicans—as a better gauge for 2026. Since Trump won’t be on the ballot, he said, congressional outcomes may be less about him and more about whether his coalition holds.
In 2024, Trump made gains with minority groups and independent men, especially Black and Hispanic voters. “The question is, does that coalition sustain itself? And we just don’t know yet,” Querard said.
Some analysts warn that continued dissatisfaction could lead voters to disengage rather than flip to Democrats, a dynamic that could depress turnout.
“If they voted for Trump and then stay home in 2026, that’s bad—but not as bad as if they switch sides,” Querard added.
Ultimately, Tranter concluded that while current numbers offer encouragement for Democrats, they must hold for another year to truly matter. “This is what they’d want to see 12 months from now. It’s just not 12 months from now—so it may change.”
