After U.S. airstrikes destroyed three of Iran’s nuclear facilities, all eyes are now on Tehran and how it will respond. While experts say retaliation is almost certain, no one knows what form it might take—or when and where it will happen.
“I suspect Iran will have to do something,” said Brett McGurk, the Biden administration’s former Middle East coordinator, in an interview with CNN. “Missiles, militias, and hostage-taking are usually their go-to options.”
Trump Warns of Severe Consequences
President Donald Trump, in an address to the nation on June 21, warned Iran against retaliating.
“If peace does not come quickly, we will go after other targets with precision, speed, and skill,” Trump said. “Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes.”
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said he hoped the surprise and scale of the attacks would force Iran to reconsider any retaliation.
“We believe the psychological impact of the strike will be significant,” Hegseth said in a June 22 briefing. “We certainly hope Iran takes the path of peace.”
Could Retaliation Backfire on Iran?
Former National Security Adviser John Bolton believes Iran is in a precarious position.
“They may retaliate,” Bolton told USA TODAY, “but this could also divide the regime from within. Right now, Iran has one military adversary pounding its proxies—Israel. Does it really want to add the U.S. to that list?”
Others caution that Iran’s leadership, especially Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is known for making decisions with long-term survival in mind.
“This is more likely to open a new chapter in the 46-year U.S.-Iran standoff than to end it,” said Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “But Iran’s response options are limited and extremely risky.”
What Might Iran Do?
Experts say Iran has a range of potential retaliatory moves:
- Strike U.S. troops in the Middle East.
- Attack American embassies or soft targets overseas.
- Use proxy groups like Hezbollah or Yemen’s Houthis to hit Israel or U.S. allies.
- Launch missiles at Israel, though many could be intercepted by Iron Dome.
- Mine the Strait of Hormuz or attack oil infrastructure, disrupting global trade.
- Cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure, a growing concern due to Iran’s advanced capabilities.
“Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? Yes,” said Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, a cyberwarfare expert and former director of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission. “The threat of a cyberattack is real and rising.”
Khamenei Holds the Final Say
Ultimately, Iran’s response will depend on Supreme Leader Khamenei, not its civilian government.
“He’s an experienced, authoritarian leader—but not reckless,” Sadjadpour said. “His instinct for survival is clashing with his need to appear defiant.”
Publicly, Khamenei has vowed not to cave to U.S. pressure, warning just days before the strikes that any U.S. attack would bring “irreparable damage.”
The U.S. intelligence community echoes the idea that Iran may act through its “Axis of Resistance,” a network of proxy groups, while also attempting to avoid all-out war.
“Khamenei continues to avoid a direct, expanded conflict with the U.S. and its allies,” said a recent assessment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. “But public statements have cornered him.”
Iran’s Capabilities Weakened—but Not Gone
Iran’s ability to respond has been diminished in recent years by repeated U.S. and Israeli strikes. The killing of Gen. Qasem Soleimani in 2020 and more recent blows to Hezbollah and Houthi forces have eroded its regional influence.
Still, experts say Iran’s remaining network of proxies and cyber capabilities pose a serious threat.
Trump has claimed that Iran is seeking revenge for Soleimani’s death and may even be targeting him personally. He has stated that U.S. intelligence warned of potential assassination plots.
“We have to be ready,” said McGurk. “Iran might go for a one-off strike, or they could use a proxy group like Hamas to keep their hands clean.”
A Critical Moment
As of 1 a.m. on June 22, reports citing Israeli defense officials said Iran had already launched its first retaliatory missile. The world now waits to see whether this marks the beginning of a broader escalation—or a one-time response.
“These next few days will be critical,” McGurk said. “We have to prepare for the worst but hope for the best. These are unprecedented times.”
