Over 1.2 million immigrants have left the U.S. workforce this year, raising concerns about labor shortages in industries like farming, construction, and health care — all critical to the nation’s economy.
Lidia, who has worked in California’s Central Valley for more than two decades, still fears being stopped by immigration officers. She crossed the U.S.-Mexico border illegally as a teenager and now worries about deportation.
“The worry is they’ll pull you over when you’re driving and ask for your papers,” Lidia told The Associated Press. “We need to work. We need to feed our families and pay our rent.”
Experts say President Donald Trump’s stronger immigration enforcement is changing the labor force. According to preliminary Census Bureau data analyzed by the Pew Research Center, more than 1.2 million immigrants — both legal and undocumented — have disappeared from the labor force since January.
Immigrants make up nearly 20% of the U.S. workforce, including 45% of workers in farming, fishing, and forestry, said Stephanie Kramer, a senior researcher at Pew. About 30% of construction workers and 24% of service workers are also immigrants.
This drop comes at the same time the total immigrant population has declined for the first time, even though the number of undocumented immigrants had previously reached a record 14 million in 2023.
“It’s unclear how much of this decline is due to voluntary departures, deportations, or underreporting,” Kramer said. “But we believe the decline is real.”
President Trump has pledged to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. While he has said enforcement targets criminals, most people detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement have no criminal record. At the same time, illegal border crossings have fallen sharply.
Economist Pia Orrenius from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said immigrants usually account for at least half of U.S. job growth.
“The influx across the border has essentially stopped, and that has had a huge impact on the ability to create jobs,” she said.
Across Texas and California, farms and businesses are already feeling the pressure. In McAllen, Texas, Elizabeth Rodriguez of the National Farmworker Ministry said labor shortages delayed harvests and caused crops to rot.
“In May, during the peak of watermelon and cantaloupe season, a lot of crops did go to waste,” she said.
In Ventura County, California, Lisa Tate’s family farms saw smaller crews, and fears of raids spread quickly. Dozens of farmworkers were arrested earlier this year.
“People were being taken out of laundromats, off the side of the road,” Tate said.
Lidia, now 36, has three U.S.-born children. Her biggest fear is being deported back to Mexico and starting over.
“I don’t know if I’ll be able to bring my kids,” she said. “My whole life has been in the United States.”
Construction sites are also suffering. Rodriguez said many in the industry are undocumented, and ICE has targeted worksites. Government data shows construction jobs fell in about half of U.S. metro areas. The Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario region lost 7,200 jobs, while the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area lost 6,200.
Ken Simonson of the Associated General Contractors of America said contractors want to hire but can’t find enough workers, and immigration enforcement is making things worse.
The health care sector could also be hit hard. Kramer noted that 43% of home health aides are immigrants. Arnulfo De La Cruz, president of SEIU 2015 in California, said about half of its long-term care members are immigrants.
“What’s going to happen when millions of Americans can no longer find a home care provider?” De La Cruz asked. “Who’s going to pick our crops? Who’s going to staff our hospitals and nursing homes?”
