California’s $4 trillion economy could take a major hit from the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown, according to new research.
CNBC reported that findings from the Bay Area Economic Institute and the University of California, Merced, show that billions could be lost if deportations and threats continue. Many workers have already stopped showing up to jobs out of fear.
Roughly 20% of California’s 10.6 million immigrants are undocumented. Key industries like agriculture, construction, and hospitality are especially vulnerable. The study estimated that restrictions could shrink the state’s GDP by as much as $278 billion.
Agriculture, worth about $49 billion, is particularly dependent on migrant workers. About 63% of farmworkers are immigrants, and nearly a quarter are undocumented. Farm labor leaders warn that without them, food production would be disrupted. Automation can’t easily replace these jobs, and few U.S.-born workers want to take on the demanding, low-paying work.
Construction faces similar risks. More than 60% of California’s construction workers are foreign-born, and about 25% are undocumented. Hospitality has also been affected. CNBC noted that high-profile ICE raids, protests, and National Guard deployments have hurt restaurants and hotels.
Nationwide, a recent study found that over 1.2 million immigrants are no longer part of the workforce. The Associated Press reported Monday that this number comes from preliminary Census Bureau data reviewed by the Pew Research Center. It includes both legal and undocumented immigrants.
Immigrants make up almost 20% of the national workforce. They are heavily represented in farming (45%) and construction (about 30%). In the service sector, 24% of workers are immigrants, said Pew senior researcher Stephanie Kramer.
“It’s unclear how much of the decline we’ve seen since January is due to voluntary departures, deportations, underreporting, or other technical issues,” Kramer told the outlet. “But we do believe the numbers showing a net decline in immigration are real.”
The Pew Research Center also reported in August that the U.S. migrant population shrank for the first time in more than 50 years. Since January, the number of immigrants has fallen by about 1.4 million, bringing the total to 51.9 million. This marks the first decline since the 1960s, the center said.
