Former President Donald Trump has again raised the idea of providing Americans with a tariff-funded “dividend” — though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the concept could take different shapes and would require more discussion.
Posting Sunday on Truth Social, Trump called critics of his tariff plans “fools,” arguing that tariff revenue is reducing U.S. debt and fueling a surge in domestic factory and infrastructure development. He suggested that a payment of “at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!)” could be distributed nationwide.
Government estimates show tariffs are projected to bring in roughly $300 billion to $400 billion per year, and the Congressional Budget Office has forecast about $3.3 trillion over the next decade. Trump has previously floated the idea of using this revenue to fund direct payments to Americans — though this latest push comes shortly after his administration told the Supreme Court that tariffs are not intended primarily to generate revenue.
During an appearance on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Bessent noted that tariffs are designed to rebalance international trade and boost U.S. manufacturing jobs over time, with domestic tax revenues expected to grow as those higher-paying jobs return. He said he has not yet discussed the $2,000 payment proposal directly with Trump and emphasized that Congress would need to approve any such policy.
Bessent also pointed to provisions already enacted in the administration’s tax-and-spending bill — such as no federal taxes on tips, overtime pay, or Social Security income, and deductions for auto loans — as possible mechanisms contributing to what Trump calls a “dividend.”
That means Americans may not see a direct check. And by relying on existing tax changes rather than a new cash program, the administration could avoid a hit to federal budgeting. Although tariff revenue has helped restrain expanding budget deficits, redirecting that revenue to payouts rather than government funding would likely require taking on additional debt.
Trump has not provided further details on eligibility or timing. Erica York, a tax expert at the Tax Foundation, estimated that if individuals earning under $100,000 qualified, approximately 150 million adults could be eligible — making the cost nearly $300 billion. She also noted that including children would increase the figure significantly.
York highlighted another challenge: tariffs have broader economic effects that reduce other tax collections. “A dollar of tariff revenue offsets about 24 cents of income and payroll tax revenue,” she wrote, suggesting that the net gain from tariffs remains well below what would be needed to pay for the type of rebate Trump has proposed.
