Vice President JD Vance no longer holds majority support among Republicans in a hypothetical 2028 presidential primary, according to new polling.
A survey from AtlasIntel found that 46.7 percent of Republican respondents would choose Vance in a contest that includes U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and other potential contenders. While Vance remains the top pick, that figure is down from 54.6 percent in AtlasIntel’s September polling.
Vance has not publicly said whether he plans to run for president, but his national profile has continued to rise through his role in the White House. He is also widely viewed as a potential successor to President Donald Trump.
Why It Matters
The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, added in 1951, limits presidents to two terms. That means Trump cannot run again in 2028, setting the stage for a competitive Republican primary to determine who carries the party’s banner next.
A drop in Vance’s support could signal shifting dynamics inside the GOP and may encourage other high-profile Republicans to enter the race.
What To Know
Despite the decline, AtlasIntel’s results still show Vance with a sizeable lead. After Vance’s 46.7 percent, Rubio was second at 22.6 percent, followed by DeSantis at 13.4 percent.
In September, Vance’s advantage was larger: 54.6 percent backed him, while DeSantis drew 16.3 percent and Rubio stood at 12.2 percent.
Scott Lucas, a professor of international politics at University College Dublin, told Newsweek the polling suggests voters are responding to “tensions within the Trumpist movement,” as well as dissatisfaction tied to the release of files connected to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein and concerns about “the state of the economy.”
The polling shift comes alongside notable signals from Republican figures. Turning Point leader Erika Kirk, wife of the deceased conservative activist Charlie Kirk, endorsed Vance as Trump’s potential successor—an endorsement that could bolster his standing with some parts of the party.
But Vance also took a public hit on Sunday when Republican Senator Rand Paul said he would not support Vance in a 2028 race, citing disagreement with the Trump administration’s tariff policies in an ABC News interview.
Other surveys similarly suggest Vance is leading without commanding a majority. A YouGov poll conducted from November 6 to 9 found Vance at 42 percent, with Donald Trump Jr. a distant second at 13 percent. That survey included 2,172 U.S. adult citizens and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump said in September when asked if JD Vance is the successor to MAGA: “Well, I think most likely in all fairness, he’s the vice president. I think Marco [Rubio] is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form. I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here, so it’s too early obviously to talk about it, but certainly he’s doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point.”
Vice President JD Vance told Fox News’ Sean Hannity earlier this month: “I would say that I’ve thought about what that moment might look like after the midterm elections. But I also, whenever I think about that, I try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now, and my job is to do it.”
What Happens Next
Potential presidential contenders typically wait until after the midterm elections to launch campaigns. The next midterms are scheduled for November 2026. Alongside speculation about Republican candidates, attention is also building around which Democrats may enter the 2028 race.
