President Donald Trump issued a pointed warning to Cuba on Sunday, saying the island will receive “zero” oil or money from Venezuela and urging Cuban leaders to “make a deal before it’s too late.” The remarks, posted on Truth Social early Sunday, signaled a sharper tone from Washington toward Havana.
“Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela,” Trump wrote. “In return, Cuba provided ‘Security Services’ for the last two Venezuelan dictators, BUT NOT ANYMORE!”
“THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” he added.
Why It Matters
Trump’s warning follows the capture of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, in a U.S. operation and comes amid louder calls in Washington for political change in Havana. Together, the events point to a broader shift in U.S. policy in the region—one that is more openly confrontational and focused on disrupting longstanding political and economic relationships.
Cuba has long depended on subsidized Venezuelan oil, and the prospect of a sudden cutoff could have major implications for daily life on the island—while also further straining already tense U.S.-Cuba relations.
What To Know
Cuba’s economy is already under severe pressure. Government figures say it has shrunk by roughly 15 percent over the past six years, including a 4 percent contraction in 2025. The island never fully recovered from the collapse of the Soviet Union. Although tourism and exports—such as nickel, rum, and tobacco—helped fuel modest growth in the early 2000s, the pandemic and tighter U.S. sanctions under Trump’s second term worsened the situation.
Now, with Venezuelan oil shipments—historically about 35,000 barrels per day—at risk, analysts warn that a complete cutoff could lead to prolonged blackouts, deepen shortages of food and fuel, and accelerate migration. Between 2020 and 2024, 1.4 million Cubans left the country.
Trump’s comments also align with harder-edged statements from senior figures in his orbit. Earlier this month, South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham told reporters on Air Force One—after Maduro’s capture—that Cuba’s “days are numbered,” warning that U.S. attention would soon shift toward Havana. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told NBC that the administration is “not big fans of the Cuban regime,” and said Cuba’s leadership should be concerned about Washington’s next steps.
In addition to threatening economic pressure, Trump appeared to embrace online speculation about Rubio somehow becoming Cuba’s president. In another Truth Social post on Sunday, Trump wrote “sounds good to me!” alongside a screenshot of an X post claiming “Marco Rubio will be president of Cuba,” accompanied by a laughing emoji. Trump also shared screenshots responding to a post by conservative commentator Marc Thiessen that read: “The Cuban regime has survived every president since [Dwight D.] Eisenhower. Wouldn’t it be something if that streak ended with Donald Trump?” The tone of the exchanges suggested openness to the idea of regime change in Havana.
Still, that scenario is widely viewed as politically and constitutionally unrealistic. Cuba’s constitution restricts the presidency to a citizen by birth who holds no other citizenship, and the post is filled by Cuba’s National Assembly from within the Communist Party’s ranks.
Trump’s stance also represents a clear break from former President Joe Biden’s more cautious engagement approach. Under Trump, the administration has reaffirmed Cuba’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, reinstated sanctions, and tightened travel and business restrictions—moves intended to isolate the Cuban government and increase economic pressure.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump said on January 4: “Cuba looks like it’s ready to fall. I don’t know how they if they’re going to hold out. But Cuba now has no income. They got all of their income from Venezuela, from the Venezuelan oil. They’re not getting any of it. And Cuba literally is ready to fall. And you have a lot of great Cuban-Americans that are going to be very happy about that.
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican, told reporters aboard Air Force One: “Cuba is a communist dictatorship that’s killed priests and nuns. They’ve preyed on their own people. Their days are numbered.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told NBC News last weekend: “If I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I’d be concerned.”
Michael Galant, senior researcher at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told AP earlier this week: “This sort of besiegement of Cuba is very intentional. Will it work from their perspective? I think that the Cuban people have experienced suffering for a very long time, and the Cuban government is very well versed in how to handle these situations…
“I think it’s very difficult to predict what will and will not spark actual regime instability. From the perspective of Rubio, it’s a sort of wait them out. There’s always a breaking point.”
Jorge Duany at the Cuban Research Institute of Florida International University told the AP: “An indefinite shutdown of the electrical system, which is no longer so impossible to imagine, can be envisioned under a total suspension of oil shipments from Venezuela, which seems to be the current strategy of the American government…It would lead us to imagine the possibility of mass protests.”
What Happens Next
With fresh sanctions, the threat of an oil cutoff, and increasingly direct rhetoric from Washington, Cuba now faces a period of heightened economic and political uncertainty—both domestically and in its relationship with the United States.
