After a campaign aimed squarely at older conservative audiences—capped by a Thursday-night premiere in Washington, D.C., attended by President Donald Trump—Amazon MGM’s documentary Melania is tracking to open at $8 million or more, a stronger-than-expected start that would mark the best documentary opening in a decade.
If those estimates hold through the weekend, Melania is expected to land at No. 3 at the domestic box office, behind fellow newcomers Send Help and Iron Lung, and ahead of Jason Statham’s new action title Shelter. The performance is surprising given pre-release skepticism driven by reports of sparse advance ticket sales and empty-looking seat maps in theaters around the country.
Early audience data suggests the film is pulling heavily from older moviegoers, particularly women. Viewers 55 and older accounted for 78% of ticket buyers on opening day, with women over 55 making up 72% of that crowd. The strongest turnout appears concentrated in the South and South-Central U.S.
A record-setting price tag
Comparisons to other documentaries are tricky because Melania arrives with unusually high spending and political visibility. The film is directed by Brett Ratner, and Amazon MGM reportedly paid $40 million for worldwide licensing rights—widely interpreted in the industry as both a major acquisition and a strategic move with an eventual streaming play in mind, potentially around President’s Day weekend on Prime Video, while still keeping the film in theaters.
That’s before marketing costs. Amazon is said to have spent $35 million on global promotion for the PG-rated documentary—far above the typical theatrical push for most documentaries, which often falls in the $5 million to $7 million range. (Notable exceptions in the genre’s modern history include An Inconvenient Truth and Fahrenheit 9/11, which received unusually large campaigns for their time.)
How it stacks up historically
Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11 remains the all-time domestic box-office leader among documentaries and still holds the record for top documentary openings, debuting to $23.9 million from 868 theaters, on its way to $119.2 million in North America and $222 million globally (figures not adjusted for inflation).
Critics vs. audiences
Critical response has been harsh, with the film currently sitting at 6% on Rotten Tomatoes. Audience reaction, however, has been dramatically different: moviegoers awarded it an A CinemaScore, and its Rotten Tomatoes audience score is listed at 98%, among the highest reported for any film in the weekend’s top ranks. Analysts note that supporters may be discounting negative reviews as media bias—helping to keep turnout resilient even amid poor critic scores.
Tracking whiplash and late momentum
Heading into the weekend, Melania was initially projected in the $5 million range from 1,778 theaters—enough to challenge recent documentary benchmarks, including Angel Studios’ After Death, which opened to $5 million in 2023. But some exhibitors lowered expectations to $2 million–$4 million after seeing sluggish presales and widespread social media posts highlighting empty auditoriums.
By Friday afternoon, the outlook changed sharply. After matinee and early evening grosses came in, and following fresh exhibitor check-ins, most studios began forecasting $8 million–$9 million, pointing to stronger walk-up demand than the advance sales had suggested.
Overseas rollout and controversy
Amazon’s choice to open the film in more than 20 international markets at the same time as the U.S. release was considered a bold play given the polarizing profile of the former first lady’s husband. The film has also drawn complications abroad; in South Africa, a distributor reportedly pulled Melania from release earlier this week. Reports from parts of Europe have likewise highlighted sparse attendance in some theaters.
Amazon’s bigger theatrical push
From Amazon’s perspective, the heavy spend appears tied to a broader goal: expanding its footprint as a serious theatrical distributor while also feeding its streaming pipeline. Because it’s a documentary, Melania may hold an exclusive theatrical window for roughly two weekends (about 10 days) before moving quickly to home viewing—allowing the same campaign to support both box office and streaming interest.
Competition this weekend
Melania is opening alongside several wide releases, including 20th Century’s Rachel McAdams thriller Send Help, directed by Sam Raimi, now projected to open $16 million–$18 million domestically after strong audience and critic reception on Rotten Tomatoes. The darkly comic survival-horror premise follows two coworkers—played by McAdams and Dylan O’Brien—stranded on a desert island.
