Estonia’s foreign minister has warned that if a ceasefire or peace agreement is reached in Ukraine, Russia could redirect large numbers of former troops — including ex-convicts recruited into the military — toward Europe as part of a “hybrid war” campaign.
In comments to The Telegraph, Estonia’s foreign minister Margus Tsahkna said European governments should prepare for what he described as a sudden security challenge if hundreds of thousands of Russian ex-combatants are able to travel into the region.
Officials are reportedly considering tighter entry restrictions — including proposals for a blanket ban from the EU’s Schengen free-travel area for Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine, as well as limits on work visas and residence permits.
Tsahkna warned that some of the men returning from the front could be “weaponised” by the Kremlin. He referred to “crazy” men and said “ex-prisoners and rapists” could be used to carry out destabilising activity across Europe, adding that Russia’s security services have already been linked to attacks and sabotage attempts in European countries.
“When eventually there is peace, EU nations should be imagining the impact of hundreds of thousands of those ex-combatants coming to Europe,” he said, arguing they would not arrive “with good plans to earn their own salaries and pay taxes,” but with “real bad plans.”
Calls for coordinated travel restrictions
Tsahkna urged the UK to join any future restrictions, warning that Europe could face a “very, very sudden security risk.”
A UK government spokesman told The Telegraph that border security is a national-security issue and said Britain has strict measures available to protect the country, adding that the UK will continue working with allies against threats from Russia.
Concerns about scale after a ceasefire
Tsahkna claimed that as many as one million Russian combatants could be freed up if the war in Ukraine winds down, allowing Moscow to shift resources and personnel elsewhere. Former NATO commanders have also warned that if Russia is no longer tied down in Ukraine, it could increase pressure on NATO’s eastern flank.
The concerns come amid long-running reports that Russia recruited prisoners into military units. In Europe, officials fear that returning veterans — particularly those with criminal histories — could become a pool of people for the Kremlin to exploit for intimidation, sabotage, or other illicit activity.
Tsahkna said individual EU countries can already enforce bans at their external borders. He pointed to Estonia’s recent move to bar 261 former Russian service personnel from entering, citing concerns they could commit criminal offences.
Focus on NATO’s eastern flank
Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia have been among the most outspoken critics of Russia’s invasion. Diplomats and analysts have long noted that parts of the Baltic region contain large Russian-speaking populations and sit on strategically sensitive borders — factors that can heighten security anxieties.
In the same context, attention has been drawn to locations such as:
- Narva (Estonia): A border city with a predominantly Russian-speaking population, near key crossings into Russia.
- Klaipeda (Lithuania): A major seaport on the Baltic coast; Lithuania previously closed Russia’s consulate there after the invasion.
- Daugavpils (Latvia): A major city in the south of Latvia, near Belarus and Lithuania, with a large Russian-speaking population.
Ukraine strikes, “energy truce” talk, and US-led diplomacy
The warnings come as speculation continues about possible limited ceasefire arrangements — including talk of an “energy truce” — though Russia has continued launching strikes.
President Donald Trump said he had asked Vladimir Putin not to fire into Kyiv and other towns for a week due to “extraordinary cold,” and claimed Putin agreed. Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the “possibility” of a pause, while also warning that further strikes would undermine US-brokered talks.
Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said “a lot of progress” was made during recent three-way talks involving Ukraine, the US, and Russia in the United Arab Emirates, and suggested more headway could be made in further meetings. Zelensky has also publicly challenged Putin to meet face-to-face for ceasefire discussions, saying he was inviting him to Kyiv “if he dares.”
