A new Harvard Harris Poll released this week offers an early snapshot of who voters see as the strongest potential contenders for the 2028 presidential race. The survey shows former Vice President Kamala Harris leading the Democratic field, while Vice President J. D. Vance holds a sizable advantage among Republicans.
Why it matters
Even though 2028 is still years away, early polling can highlight which names have momentum, how voters are feeling after the 2024 cycle, and how each party’s internal dynamics may be shaping up.
What the poll found
Democrats:
- Harris: 39%
- Gavin Newsom: 30%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 12%
- Josh Shapiro: 9%
- J. B. Pritzker: 7%
- Someone else: 4%
Republicans:
- Vance: 53%
- Donald Trump Jr.: 21%
- Marco Rubio: 17%
- Tucker Carlson: 5%
- Someone else: 3%
The poll surveyed 2,000 registered voters on January 28–29 and reported a 1.99% margin of error.
Favorability notes
The survey also measured favorability and found Vance at 38%, compared with Rubio at 34%, Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez at 32%, and Carlson at 27%.
What people are saying
Former President Donald Trump said in August, when asked whether Vance is the MAGA successor:
“Well, I think most likely in all fairness, he’s the vice president. I think Marco [Rubio] is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form. I also think we have incredible people… so it’s too early obviously to talk about it but certainly he’s doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point.”
Robert Y. Shapiro, a political science professor at Columbia University, said via email on Monday:
“The sitting Vice President is usually the default choice so this is not surprising. And Trump has mentioned him along with Rubio. But if you are looking for the leaders, see who Trump plays up the most…”
D. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at University of Kentucky, said via email on Monday:
“J.D. Vance has been Donald Trump’s heir apparent since Trump switched to him for the running-mate position… Vance’s real problem will not be MAGA… [it will be] trying to motivate the many voters who usually stay home for elections but who show up for Trump himself.”
What happens next
More surveys testing potential 2028 fields are expected as parties, donors, and voters continue to size up possible contenders.
