Russian President Vladimir Putin is delaying a ceasefire as Moscow’s forces push ahead with their summer offensive in Ukraine, making their largest territorial gains in months. Meanwhile, the White House has reversed course on military aid, agreeing to send more advanced weapons to Kyiv after a brief freeze.
Russia Makes Modest Gains — But at a Cost
According to Ukraine’s open-source DeepState platform and the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian troops have seized roughly 200 square miles of Ukrainian territory in recent weeks. These advances—focused in the Sumy region, Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, and Zaporizhzhia—mark the biggest gains since early 2025. However, they still amount to just a fraction of Ukraine’s total land.
Ukraine has reclaimed around 7% of Russian-held territory since the 2022 invasion, leaving about 19% still under Moscow’s control. That includes Crimea and most of the Donetsk region—key targets in the ongoing conflict.
Despite superior numbers, Russia has suffered higher casualties and equipment losses than Ukraine. Analysts say the latest advances are due in part to Moscow’s escalating use of drones and long-range weapons. ISW reports that drone and missile attacks grew by 31% in June and July alone.
Trump’s Turnaround on Ukraine
President Donald Trump entered his second term pledging to end the war in 24 hours. He initially froze military aid and scaled back intelligence sharing with Ukraine, even publicly blaming President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the conflict during an Oval Office meeting.
But as Putin continues missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities—and ignores Trump’s push for a ceasefire—the U.S. president has shifted course. In early July, Trump announced a resumption of arms shipments to Ukraine and unveiled a new NATO-led effort to supply Kyiv with advanced American-made air defense systems.
Speaking on July 9, Trump also softened his stance on Putin:
“He’s very nice to us all the time. But it turns out to be meaningless.”
Diplomacy Falters as Tensions Rise
Two rounds of Trump-brokered ceasefire negotiations have failed. As the relationship between Trump and Putin has deteriorated, U.S. lawmakers have rallied behind tough new sanctions targeting Russia.
Trump warned Moscow of “severe” economic penalties if it doesn’t agree to a ceasefire by September. The Kremlin dismissed the warning as “bluster.”
Putin’s government has floated the idea of a face-to-face meeting with Trump in Beijing during events marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. But so far, there’s no word from the White House on whether Trump will attend.
Ukraine Hits Back
While Russia continues its barrage, Ukraine is stepping up its counterattacks. On July 21, Ukrainian drones struck airports serving Moscow, grounding flights and triggering chaos at Sheremetyevo, Russia’s busiest airport. Videos shared by Russian media showed travelers sleeping on the floor amid delays and cancellations.
Meanwhile, Zelenskyy announced new defense manufacturing deals with French firms to build drones domestically—a move likely to boost Ukraine’s resilience and signal growing international support.
For now, Russia may be advancing on the ground, but diplomatically and strategically, the tide could be shifting.
