More than half a million people could leave the U.S. this year, according to new estimates, as President Donald Trump’s hardline immigration agenda takes hold—and economists warn it could deal a significant blow to the U.S. economy.
A new report from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) projects that net migration could fall as low as negative 525,000 in 2025. That would mark the first time in decades that the U.S. has experienced negative net migration. The figure reflects both a steep drop in immigration and an uptick in people leaving the country.
By comparison, the U.S. welcomed nearly 1.3 million new immigrants in 2024 and had a net migration of 330,000 in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic largely froze global mobility.
With foreign-born workers making up over 19% of the U.S. labor force and holding an estimated $1.7 trillion in spending power, experts say this sudden decline could squeeze both the workforce and consumer demand—dragging down GDP growth.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recently released its own warning, estimating a loss of 0.75% to 1.0% of GDP growth this year due to shrinking immigration.
“The drop in migrant inflows, and the drop in the foreign-born population more broadly, will have adverse effects on growth in the U.S. labor force, which will spill over into almost every sector of the economy,” said economist Madeline Zavodny, a co-author of the Dallas Fed report.
She noted that the U.S. already struggles with low birth rates and an aging population—factors that make immigration critical to maintaining a healthy labor force in industries like agriculture, construction, and health care.
Despite mounting warnings, the Trump administration is forging ahead. A White House spokeswoman, Abigail Jackson, told Newsweek:
“President Trump’s agenda to deport criminal illegal aliens will improve Americans’ quality of life across the board. Resources funded by taxpayers will no longer be abused by illegals. President Trump is ushering in America’s golden age with American workers at the center of our economy.”
But critics say the economic impact could be devastating—especially for industries that rely heavily on immigrant labor.
Giovanni Peri, an economist at UC Davis, said lower-skilled industries like farming, hospitality, and construction will be hit hardest, with rising prices likely as businesses compete for fewer workers.
Stan Veuger, co-author of the AEI paper, warned that a reduced immigrant labor force would also strain demand in sectors such as retail, utilities, and real estate—adding another layer of economic pressure.
“Large firms might be able to offer higher wages to fill gaps,” said Peri. “But smaller businesses, with tighter margins, could struggle to survive.”
Zavodny added that small businesses, which often can’t access guest worker visa programs like H-2A or H-2B, will be among the hardest hit. Even large companies, she noted, will lose part of their customer base as the immigrant population shrinks.
In 2023 alone, undocumented immigrants contributed $299 billion in spending and paid $167 billion in rent, according to the American Immigration Council.
AEI’s paper warns that this reduced spending power will lead to lower business revenue, job losses, and deeper disruptions to the already strained labor market.
Even so, there’s little indication the administration plans to alter course. Trump recently signed a GOP-backed reconciliation bill that allocates $150 billion to boost immigration enforcement.
Asked if the economic fallout could change the administration’s approach, AEI’s Veuger was skeptical:
“I would hope so, though I am not optimistic. I think the people driving immigration policy in the White House do not care about the economic—or humanitarian—impact of their policies.”
