Data from the Thanksgiving weekend shows Americans spent heavily online, but a closer look at how and why they shopped suggests the economy may not be as strong as headline numbers make it seem.
Adobe Analytics estimates that U.S. consumers spent $6.4 billion online on Thanksgiving Day and $11.8 billion on Black Friday—both record highs and well above last year’s totals. Yet Salesforce figures, cited by Forbes, show that order volume actually dipped about 1 percent year over year, even as average selling prices climbed 7 percent. In other words, much of the “growth” looks driven by inflation, not a surge in enthusiasm.
Why This Matters
Consumer spending makes up roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and the holiday season is often treated as a stress test for household finances.
The White House has highlighted strong Black Friday sales as a sign that consumers are in solid shape heading into the end of 2025. Others, however, argue that weak confidence, high prices, and tighter budgets are being papered over by inflation and the behavior of higher-income shoppers.
Mixed Signals Before and During Black Friday
Forecasts going into the season were divided. Some analysts predicted record spending, while others—like Deloitte—warned that “cost pressures and financial constraints” would drag down demand. Deloitte’s October survey found broad caution, with both lower- and higher-income households saying they planned to trim their holiday purchases.
Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, told Newsweek that much of this year’s increase reflects inflation more than true volume growth.
“From our data, Black Friday spending grew by around 3.1 percent, with volumes rising by around 0.2 percent,” he said. “Consumers dug deep on Black Friday, but they were selective in their spending and largely stuck to budgets. The new reality is that dollars stretch less far than they once did, and consumers have adjusted to that.”
Even so, Adobe’s estimate of a 9 percent jump in Black Friday e-commerce has reassured some observers. Forrester retail analyst Sucharita Kodali noted that the increase is far above the current U.S. inflation rate.
“The U.S. inflation rate is nowhere close to 9 percent. It’s closer to 3 percent,” Kodali told Newsweek. “There was definitely lift in spend and the 9 percent exceeded Adobe’s own estimates.”
“I do think that many people are looking for deals which is why the numbers during a holiday sale date would be particularly high,” she added.
Over the full month, Adobe found that November spending rose 7.1 percent year over year, with sales up across electronics, apparel, and furniture/home goods. Mastercard’s separate analysis showed that total Black Friday sales—online and in-store combined—were up 4.1 percent compared to 2024.
AI, BNPL, and the New Ways Americans Spend
The spending boom has been shaped by newer tools and payment methods. Adobe and Salesforce both pointed to artificial intelligence and buy now, pay later (BNPL) services as key drivers this year.
Salesforce estimated that AI-powered agents drove about $3 billion in online sales on Black Friday. Adobe, meanwhile, reported an 805 percent increase in AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail sites.
Adobe also projected $761.8 million in BNPL spending on Black Friday and expects $20.2 billion to be financed through these plans over November and December, an 11 percent rise from last year.
Tracy Schuchart, a senior economist at NinjaTrader, described BNPL as the “elephant in the room” of consumer spending, highlighting heavy use among high earners for discretionary buys and among lower-income shoppers for essentials.
“The demographics explain why spending hit records while unit volumes declined,” she wrote on X. “Younger shoppers financing purchases on mobile devices drove transaction counts. High earners financing luxury goods on BNPL drove dollar amounts. Lower income shoppers financing necessities kept participation rates high even as they bought fewer actual items.”
A K-Shaped Consumer: High Earners Hold Up the Numbers
Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate, also pointed to the outsized role of wealthier Americans in propping up overall spending—a hallmark of what many call a “k-shaped” economy.
An October Bankrate survey found that 30 percent of consumers planned to spend less this holiday season than last year, while 43 percent expected to spend about the same. Rossman told Newsweek that those attitudes can only be squared with rising overall sales if you factor in the disproportionate weight of affluent shoppers—and the reality that “a clear majority of holiday sales growth can be attributed directly to higher prices.”
At the same time, foot traffic has weakened. Retail analytics firm RetailNext reported a 5.3 percent year-over-year drop in in-store visits on Black Friday and the following Saturday.
“Shoppers showed they’re done with the impulse-driven, one-day frenzy,” wrote Joe Shasteen, global head of advanced analytics at RetailNext. “Prices, tariffs, and tighter budgets pushed people to shop with discipline, not adrenaline, and they responded by turning Black Friday into a value calculation.”
What Comes Next
Black Friday is often treated as the “anchor” of the holiday shopping season, but it’s only the opening chapter. Analysts and retailers will need to see how spending holds up through December to understand how economic pressures are reshaping behavior.
Last year’s Cyber Monday spending reached $13.3 billion. Adobe expects that to climb to a record $14.2 billion this year, with spending peaking at an estimated $16 million per minute between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m.
For the full holiday period, Adobe is projecting $253.4 billion in online spending, up from $241.1 billion in 2024. The National Retail Federation expects total sales across November and December—online and in-store combined—to surpass $1 trillion for the first time.
Mastercard, for its part, forecasts a 7.9 percent increase in e-commerce sales and a 2.3 percent rise in brick-and-mortar sales. Its report also cautions that “inflation is expected to be a larger contributor to sales growth, as opposed to actual sales volume compared to last year.”
Taken together, the data suggests that Americans are still spending—and spending a lot—but often by stretching budgets with credit and BNPL, hunting aggressively for discounts, and relying heavily on the financial cushion of higher-income households. The receipts look strong; the underlying picture is more complicated.Thinking
