President Donald Trump has dismissed recent approval polls as “rigged,” pushing back against surveys that show his public support weakening toward the end of his first year back in office.
On Tuesday, Trump shared an image on Truth Social from the Trafalgar Group claiming that more than 50 percent of voters approve of his performance. He added his own assertion: “The real number is 64%, and why not, our Country is ‘hotter’ than ever before.”
The Trafalgar Group, classified as center-right by Media Bias Fact Check, currently places Trump’s approval rating at 50.2 percent, with 46.7 percent strongly approving and 3.5 percent approving. Disapproval stands at 44.6 percent, according to a survey of 1,098 likely general election voters conducted December 26–27. The poll carries a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
Other polling averages paint a far less favorable picture. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin shows Trump’s approval sliding from 51.9 percent in January to 42.2 percent in December. RealClearPolitics reports a similar trend, putting his approval at 43.4 percent compared with a 53.3 percent disapproval rating.
Despite these numbers, Trump and his supporters often argue that polls underestimate his popularity. In each of his three presidential campaigns, he has outperformed pre-election polling expectations.
Why It Matters
Presidential approval ratings are widely seen as indicators of the national mood and can influence electoral outcomes. With the 2026 midterm elections approaching and control of Congress narrowly contested, Trump’s standing with voters could shape both his policy agenda and Republican prospects.
The polling debate comes as Democrats have recorded several down-ballot gains this year. Most recently, Democrat Renee Hardman’s victory in an Iowa state Senate special election blocked Republican efforts to reclaim a supermajority in the chamber.
What to Know
In his Truth Social post, Trump wrote: “The polls are rigged even more than the writers. The real number is 64%, and why not, our Country is ‘hotter’ than ever before. Isn’t it nice to have a STRONG BORDER, No Inflation, a powerful Military, and great Economy??? Happy New Year!”
National polling averages, however, continue to show weaker approval. The Silver Bulletin currently estimates Trump’s net approval at minus 12 points, with particularly low marks on immigration (minus 8), the economy (minus 20.5), trade and tariffs (minus 20.5), and inflation (minus 28.8).
RealClearPolitics reports a negative spread of 9.9 percentage points, a gap that has remained relatively stable for months.
Individual polls show even sharper declines. An AtlasIntel survey conducted December 15–19 found Trump’s approval at 39.3 percent, with 59.6 percent disapproving, for a net rating of minus 20.3 points. The poll surveyed 2,315 respondents and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. AtlasIntel was rated by Nate Silver as the most accurate pollster of the 2024 election.
Trump has repeatedly criticized polling, at times calling for investigations into what he has described as “election fraud.”
The Pew Research Center has suggested that polling often underestimates Trump’s support because people most likely to participate in surveys tend to lean Democratic. “This is super frustrating for pollsters,” said Pew’s head methodologist Courtney Kennedy. “We start by reaching out to a random sample of Americans, but after we’ve collected the data, it turns out the people who have participated are no longer random and representative.”
What People Are Saying
Nate Silver wrote in a recent Substack post that Trump’s approval remains difficult to measure accurately. “There’s a lot of disagreement from survey to survey, not just because of statistical variation but because pollsters have long had trouble pegging down Trump’s popularity—and often underestimated it,” he said.
White House spokesman Kush Desai previously defended the administration’s record, saying it had made progress in cooling inflation, raising real wages, boosting private-sector job growth, and attracting trillions of dollars in domestic investment. He added that the administration intends to continue delivering economic relief in the year ahead.
What Happens Next
Trump’s approval ratings are expected to remain volatile as the midterms draw closer, with both parties emphasizing issues driving voter dissatisfaction. With control of Congress finely balanced, polling is likely to take on even greater importance as strategists on both sides look to appeal to younger and working-class voters who could prove decisive.
