California Governor Gavin Newsom has gained momentum in a possible 2028 matchup against Vice President JD Vance, according to new national polling that shows the two tied in support.
An Emerson College Polling national survey found Newsom and Vance both at 44 percent, with 12 percent of voters undecided. This marks a shift from July, when Emerson polling showed Vance slightly ahead, 45 percent to 42 percent.
The same poll showed Newsom leading the 2028 Democratic presidential primary at 25 percent, a 13-point jump from Emerson’s June results.
Newsweek reached out to both Newsom and Vance for comment.
Why It Matters
The poll comes after weeks of growing national attention for Newsom, who has clashed openly with President Donald Trump and pushed to redraw California’s congressional districts.
Newsom has argued that his redistricting effort is a direct response to Republican moves in Texas, where Governor Greg Abbott—backed by Trump—plans to approve a new GOP-friendly map before the 2026 midterms.
At the same time, Newsom’s official press office X account has leaned into mocking Trump’s style, using all-caps posts and nicknames, including calling the vice president “Just Dance Vance.”
The Emerson poll was conducted August 25–26.
What To Know
In the Democratic primary survey, Newsom led at 25 percent. Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg followed with 16 percent, former Vice President Kamala Harris with 11 percent, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro with 5 percent, and both Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 4 percent.
On the Republican side, Vance led the field with 52 percent support. Secretary of State Marco Rubio came in second at 9 percent, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had 7 percent.
So far, none of these figures has officially announced a 2028 presidential run.
What People Are Saying
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that Newsom’s support has risen across multiple groups. He highlighted a 12-point increase among voters under 30, an 18-point jump among voters over 70, and a 14-point increase among both Black and white voters.
Kimball also pointed out that Newsom now has a clear lead among young voters aged 18–29. In June, this group was split evenly between Newsom and Vance, but in August, Newsom led 45 percent to 28 percent.
Earlier this month, William Kedjanyi, a political betting analyst at Star Sports, told Newsweek: “Gavin Newsom has always been a well-recognized figure in American politics, but recently he’s asserted himself as a leader of the resistance against President Donald Trump. He’s become more combative, challenging Trump directly and getting under his skin.”
What Happens Next
The first Democratic presidential primaries are expected to begin in early 2028, followed by the general election in November.
