President Donald Trump has recently claimed his administration is making headway against high food costs.
“Grocery prices are starting to go rapidly down,” Trump told an audience at the Detroit Economic Club, offering no evidence.
But just hours earlier, new government data undercut that message, showing the largest monthly increase in food prices since 2022.
Staples are climbing fast
A U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released Tuesday showed sharp increases in several everyday items. Coffee prices rose nearly 20% in December compared with a year earlier, while ground beef climbed 15.5% over the same period.
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Overall, grocery prices increased 2.4% over the year ending in December, the data showed.
“Prices at the grocery store continue to be high,” Naomi Blohm, a senior market adviser for Total Farm Marketing, told ABC News. “We’re all feeling it.”
Trump blames Biden and claims inflation is “defeated”
At the Detroit Economic Club, Trump blamed his predecessor for the run-up in prices before he took office and insisted inflation had been brought under control.
“Joe Biden gave us a colossal stagflation catastrophe but my administration rapidly and very decisively ended that,” Trump said last Tuesday.
While overall inflation is below the 3% level recorded in January — the month Trump took office — it has remained near that range for much of the year. The current inflation rate of 2.7% is still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Why beef prices are spiking
Analysts told ABC News that the surge in food prices largely reflects supply-and-demand pressures shaped by weather and global market conditions — factors they say can’t be pinned neatly on any one administration.
Beef is a prime example.
Today’s prices trace back to drought conditions that shrank cattle supplies, said David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University.
In 2022, severe drought in major beef-producing regions pushed up feed costs, prompting ranchers to sell more cattle than usual to cut losses, Ortega said. That selloff reduced the animals needed to rebuild future supply — and years later, herd levels remain below historical norms.
At the same time, demand has held strong, Blohm said. “It continues to be strong,” she added.
The result: higher prices across beef products. Ground beef rose 15.5% year over year in December, and beef steaks climbed 17.8%, according to government data.
Coffee, cocoa — and candy — feel the squeeze too
Other commodities facing similar pressure include coffee and cocoa, which has helped drive up prices for some sweets and candy as input costs rise.
Packaging costs and tariffs add another layer
Some analysts also pointed to policy-driven costs that can indirectly hit grocery shelves — especially packaging.
They highlighted Trump’s 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, which have increased costs for cans and other materials. Wholesale data show steel-can prices are up 16% over the past year.
“Manufacturers are paying more for their packaging material,” Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, told ABC News. “Prices are going up.”
Trade shifts may help — but not immediately
In November, the administration announced framework trade agreements with some Latin American countries aimed at easing tariffs and reducing costs for heavily imported goods such as bananas.
Ortega said changes like that can take months to show up meaningfully in consumer prices. For now, banana prices remain elevated, rising nearly 6% over the past year.
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“It takes time for those inflationary pressures to work their way through the food system,” Ortega said.
Some prices are dropping — but the bigger picture remains tough
There are bright spots: egg prices fell 20.9% in December compared with the previous year. Tomatoes and potatoes are also cheaper than a year ago, and dairy prices edged down slightly.
Even so, Blohm said the broader pressure on food prices could stick around for the next couple of years as supply constraints ease slowly and input costs come down.
“There’s no easy fix, unfortunately,” Blohm said.
