Support for Donald Trump among Latino voters is slipping, but Democrats aren’t seeing much benefit from the shift. New polling suggests a growing number of Latino voters feel frustrated with both parties, leaving many undecided as the 2026 midterms approach.
According to the latest Pew Research Center survey, Trump’s approval rating among Latino voters has fallen to 27 percent, a level not seen since his first campaign. Republican strategist Mike Madrid, who has long studied Latino voting trends, said GOP leaders are misreading the landscape if they think their 2024 success with Hispanic voters is permanent.
“They’re treating 2024 like a permanent shift,” Madrid told Newsweek. “But Latino support for Trump is already reverting to where it was in 2016.”
While Latino voters have historically leaned Democratic, Trump made significant gains in 2024, winning 48 percent of the Hispanic vote—the best showing for a Republican since George W. Bush in 2004. Now, much of that support appears unstable.
“Latinos are behaving more like the general electorate,” said Eduardo Gamarra, a political scientist at Florida International University. “The economy is the top issue, and second- and third-generation Hispanics are focusing less on immigration and more on wages, jobs, and cost of living.”
But shifting away from Trump doesn’t necessarily mean shifting back to Democrats. A July Equis Research report found that nearly one-third of Latinos who supported Trump in 2024 are now undecided about 2026. Economic concerns remain central: 58 percent of Latino voters—including many Trump supporters from last cycle—say the president is more focused on culture wars and immigration crackdowns than lowering costs.
Trump’s standing on the economy has sharply declined. Just 23 percent approve of his handling of the cost of living, with a net disapproval of -50. Even some of his 2024 backers now say he has failed to deliver on his promises.
Immigration, once a defining issue for Latino voters, is also shifting. While Trump continues to score well on border security, his harsher enforcement tactics are pushing some of his base away. Many Latinos who now regret their 2024 vote oppose workplace raids, masked ICE agents, and tough detention policies, viewing them as out of touch with their priorities.
Democrats, meanwhile, haven’t fully capitalized on the frustration. In the same Equis poll, more Latino swing voters said Democrats “talk a lot about how dangerous Trump is but don’t do anything to stop him” than said the party was effectively fighting back. In competitive House districts with large Latino populations, Democrats hold only a slim edge. Nationally, Latino favorability toward Democrats has fallen to +3, and in battlegrounds it is essentially neutral.
Even Latino voters who once supported Joe Biden before switching to Trump remain unconvinced. Half now disapprove of Trump’s economic record, but they haven’t moved toward Democrats either.
“The biggest takeaway from this research is that neither party should assume they have Latinos in their pocket,” Equis co-founder Stephanie Valencia told MSNBC columnist Julio Ricardo Varela. “We’re seeing increased cynicism about both parties among key swing voters.”
Valencia said many Latinos backed Trump out of economic desperation rather than ideological loyalty. “But he hasn’t delivered,” she said. “Democrats will need a proactive plan on cost-of-living issues if they want to win these voters back.”
In some regions, those frustrations are already showing. In Clark County, Nevada, Politico reported a 30 percent increase in ballots split between Trump and Democratic House candidates. In Arizona, Senator Ruben Gallego outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris by six points in heavily Latino districts. And in Texas, Democrats fared better in local races even as Trump carried the state.
Despite these openings, both parties face obstacles. Latino voters haven’t forgotten past Democratic failures on immigration reform or slow responses to economic struggles like housing, health care, and wages. Nor are they swayed by fear-based appeals about Trump’s rhetoric.
“The idea that Trump’s extremism would be enough to win back these voters was inaccurate in 2024, and it remains so in 2025,” Varela wrote. “Latino voters are still watching, but they are no longer waiting.”
Madrid sees the broader challenge: “We’re watching two parties in transition. Neither one is winning these voters.”
