President Donald Trump’s recently imposed tariffs could play a major role in determining the next cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security recipients.
The 2026 COLA will be based on inflation data from 2025 and will directly influence the benefit amounts for tens of millions of Americans.
Why It Matters
The new tariffs have intensified trade tensions between the United States and key partners, while also contributing to higher prices on many everyday goods and pushing overall inflation higher.
For more than 70 million Americans who rely on Social Security, that could mean larger monthly checks. But experts warn that what looks like a “raise” on paper may not feel like one in real life.
What To Know
Trump’s 10 percent global tariff, along with higher “reciprocal” tariffs on certain countries, has driven up prices on a variety of products and helped fuel broader inflation.
Because the COLA is tied to inflation, this price pressure is likely to result in a higher adjustment for 2026, increasing benefit amounts accordingly. Still, analysts emphasize that this doesn’t automatically translate into greater financial security for seniors.
“The ‘Trump bump’ is the cruelest kind of ‘raise.’ Tariffs are pushing prices up roughly 2.3 percent in the short run, which inflates the COLA seniors get,” Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, told Newsweek. “So yes, checks go up a bit more than they would have. But here’s what the headlines miss: the same inflation driving that bump is eating the buying power before the check even clears.”
The Social Security Administration calculates the COLA using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from the third quarter—July, August and September.
The new adjustment is typically announced on October 15. This year, however, political gridlock between Republicans and Democrats and a broader government shutdown are expected to delay the announcement for retirees and disabled Americans.
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a major advocacy group, currently projects a 2.7 percent COLA for 2026.
“Beneficiaries should expect anything in the range of a 2.7 percent to 2.9 percent increase on their Social Security benefits to be announced in the coming week,” Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group, told Newsweek.
What Experts Are Saying
Ryan highlighted the timing mismatch between when seniors face higher prices and when they receive any adjustment.
“The COLA formula is backward looking by design. Meanwhile, tariff-driven price spikes hit now. Seniors spend January through September paying elevated prices on imports, then get a retroactive adjustment in October that might cover 70–80 percent of what they’ve already lost,” he told Newsweek.
Thompson noted that inflation continues to challenge both Social Security beneficiaries and policymakers.
“Inflation still remains an issue for not only social security beneficiaries but also the Federal Reserve’s mandate. This also may put more stress on the social security trust fund as more money comes out of the system,” he told Newsweek. “For many seniors, this represents an increase but not nearly enough to offset the rising cost of Medicare as premiums continue to move higher across the board far above the rate of inflation.”
Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, described the situation this way: “The ‘bump’ isn’t really a good thing, as we’ve seen by other COLA increases in recent years. While beneficiaries are getting more in their checks, that extra amount is meant to offset the increase in prices across the board. In other words, it’s not so much a raise as simply keeping up with inflation.”
What Happens Next
A higher COLA is also expected to push Medicare Part B premiums higher, since they are tied to overall program costs and are typically deducted directly from Social Security payments, Ryan said.
“So that ‘bump’ shrinks before it reaches most retirees’ bank accounts. You’re basically watching your left pocket give money to your right pocket while inflation picks both,” he explained.
“This is far from a windfall. It’s a cost-of-living adjustment, not a cost-of-living advantage. Seniors aren’t getting ahead, they’re barely treading water in choppier seas.”
