On Tuesday afternoon, CNN analyst Harry Enten looked at a map of Tennessee’s 7th District and sounded an alarm. If Republicans only narrowly held the seat, he warned, it would be “a bad sign,” since Donald Trump had carried the district by double digits every time he’d appeared on the ballot. An Emerson poll showed Republican Matt Van Epps leading Democrat Aftyn Behn by just two points, and Enten highlighted that there was better than an 80 percent chance of a double-digit swing toward Democrats—another data point in a trend of Democratic overperformance in special elections since Trump’s second term began.
By the end of the night, that warning had largely come true. Van Epps did hang on to the deep-red district, but his roughly nine-point win was a steep drop from former Representative Mark Green’s 21-point margin. What should have been a routine hold in “Trump country” turned into a full-scale rescue effort by Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and millions of dollars in outside spending from both parties.
Republicans can fairly say that a win is still a win, and their House majority ticks up to 220–213—at least until upcoming vacancies narrow it again. But the cost of that victory, both in money and in margin, is why Tennessee’s 7th is echoing far beyond Nashville. In a district that Republicans literally re-engineered to wipe out a Democratic seat, Tennessee just sent a loud signal about how fragile the Trump-era coalition has become.
How the race got so close
The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District began when Republican Mark Green resigned on July 20, 2025, to take a private-sector job after voting for Trump’s marquee “One Big Beautiful Bill” tax-and-spending package, creating a vacancy in a seat the GOP had long treated as safe. The contest to replace him—between Van Epps, a 42-year-old Army veteran, and Behn, a 36-year-old progressive state representative and activist—was held on December 2, following October primaries and an early-voting period that ended the day before Thanksgiving.
On paper, there was no reason for suspense. During the 2022 redistricting cycle, Tennessee Republicans dismantled a solidly Democratic, Nashville-based seat and split the city’s voters among three GOP-leaning districts. The new TN-7 became a Trump +22 stronghold where Green won by 21 points in 2024. Only about 20 percent of its voters now live in heavily Democratic Nashville; the rest are in fast-growing suburbs and more conservative rural counties.
But the ingredients for a scare were in place. By late November, Trump’s job approval in the district had dipped underwater: 49 percent of likely voters disapproved and 47 percent approved, according to Emerson—a “stark reversal” from his 22-point victory there the year before. Among independents, 59 percent disapproved of his performance, compared with just 34 percent who approved.
That same poll showed Van Epps ahead of Behn by only two points, 49–47—well within the margin of error and far below past Republican blowouts. The economy topped the list of voter concerns: about 38 percent cited it as their most important issue, with housing costs, health care and “threats to democracy” close behind. Behn leaned hard into those worries, campaigning on lowering grocery, housing and health-care prices and criticizing Trump-era tariffs and spending priorities as favors to corporations and the wealthy.
Republicans reverted to a familiar playbook: nationalize the race around Trump and define the Democrat as extreme. Van Epps vowed to back Trump “100 percent,” praised him as a “true ‘America First’ patriot,” and promised to help him “save the nation we love.” GOP ads labeled Behn “the AOC of Tennessee,” highlighted her support for defunding the police and transgender rights, and cast her as far outside the district’s mainstream.
Both sides treated the race like a mini-midterm. MAGA Inc., the Trump-aligned super PAC, poured an estimated $1–1.7 million into boosting Van Epps—its first major spending push since the presidential campaign—while groups such as Club for Growth Action also jumped in. On the Democratic side, House Majority PAC invested roughly $1 million in pro-Behn advertising, joined by the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, labor unions and other national progressive organizations.
With nearly all ballots counted, Van Epps led Behn 53.9 percent to 45.1 percent—an 8.9-point margin that shaved more than a dozen points off both Trump’s 2024 edge and Green’s last win. In a cycle where Democrats have been beating 2024 presidential margins in specials by an average of around 18 points from Florida to Arizona, Tennessee’s result fits neatly into a broader narrative: a nation that still looks red on the map, but behaves much more purple at the ballot box.
How Republicans are spinning the result
Trump celebrated the outcome as “another great night for the Republican Party,” congratulating Van Epps on his “BIG Congressional WIN” and mocking “Radical Left Democrats” for spending “Millions of Dollars” on the race. Van Epps told supporters that “running with Trump is how you win,” casting his victory as a watershed moment for Tennessee and the country as a whole.
Among conservative commentators, the core message is that Democrats wasted their money on a fantasy, Republicans held the line where it mattered, and the lesson is not to move away from Trump but to double down on organizing—even in places that look safely red.
How Democrats are reading the numbers
Democrats, by contrast, are treating Tennessee as a successful stress test. DNC chair Ken Martin called Behn’s showing in a Trump +22 district “historic” and “a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms.”
Behn framed the campaign as a beginning rather than a one-off. “We may not have won tonight, but we changed the story of what’s possible here,” she told supporters, promising that “we’re not done, not by a long shot.”
Why this race matters going forward
In the near term, Van Epps will be sworn in, nudging Republicans to a 220–213 advantage in the House. But that edge is already under pressure. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s pending resignation in Georgia will narrow the margin, while Democrats are favored to hold or flip seats in upcoming special elections in Texas and New Jersey, likely tightening things further.
The deeper impact is strategic. Tennessee’s 7th is fast becoming Exhibit A in arguments that aggressive Republican gerrymanders—such as slicing Nashville into three GOP-leaning districts—can boomerang once demographics evolve and Trump isn’t physically on the ballot. Map-makers in other states, especially Texas, now must reckon with the possibility that a district engineered to be Trump +20 on paper can behave like a competitive seat in a low-turnout election dominated by cost-of-living anger.
Democrats, meanwhile, are likely to treat Tennessee as evidence that investing in “unwinnable” red districts can drain GOP resources and build a local bench for future cycles. The DCCC is already trumpeting that it is “on offense not just in…swing districts but in red terrain across the country,” from Trump strongholds to rural and Latino communities.
Perhaps the clearest warning from Tennessee is aimed at Trump himself. His approval rating is now negative in a district he easily carried a year ago; independents there have turned sharply against him; and Republicans had to deploy nearly every lever of MAGA power just to hold a seat they once assumed was safe. Special elections often function as early fire alarms. Tennessee’s siren is now blaring inside Republican campaign headquarters nationwide.
Perspectives began as a staple of Newsweek’s print edition, highlighting the week’s biggest stories through a collection of standout quotes. Today, it returns in a new format but with the same goal: helping members stay informed by showcasing the ideas and voices shaping the political conversation.
