A backlog of major economic reports is finally about to land, giving policymakers, analysts and investors a clearer picture of how the U.S. economy is performing under President Donald Trump after the government shutdown delayed several key releases.
The December “super week” ramps up Tuesday with a larger-than-usual jobs report, followed by November inflation data on Thursday. Along the way, fresh updates on retail sales, housing starts and consumer sentiment will add context on whether the economy is merely slowing—or sliding toward something worse.
Why It Matters
Trump has come under growing scrutiny over affordability and rising prices, which were central themes of his 2024 campaign. Recent surveys have shown weakening consumer confidence about both household finances and the broader economic outlook. This week’s numbers could either reinforce concerns that the U.S. is nearing a downturn or ease fears with evidence that growth is holding up.
The Federal Reserve made a dovish rate cut at last week’s meeting, but Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized that inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2 percent long-run target. At the same time, the central bank is weighing that against signs of a labor market that may be losing momentum.
What To Know
On Tuesday, the government will publish nonfarm payrolls figures for both October and November. Those reports were delayed because the shutdown forced the Department of Labor to suspend some data-collection work.
September’s report, released in late November, surprised to the upside with 119,000 jobs added. Still, the prior two months were revised down by a combined 33,000 jobs, and forecasters expect the double release to show further softening.
Trading Economics projects job gains of 55,000 in October and 25,000 in November—both below typical monthly averages and weaker than July’s initially reported 73,000 total, which prompted Trump to fire the top statistician at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Tuesday will also bring the unemployment rate for November, which is expected to remain at 4.4 percent after three straight increases. The BLS has said it will not publish an unemployment rate for October, citing shutdown-related disruptions that affected data collection.
Retail sales data for October is also due Tuesday from the Census Bureau. Forecasts call for another 0.2 percent monthly increase, which would mark the smallest gain since May’s 0.8 percent drop.
Inflation will come into focus Thursday with November’s Consumer Price Index release. The BLS canceled October’s inflation report, saying it was “unable to retroactively collect” the necessary consumer price data after the shutdown. September’s report showed a mixed picture, with monthly price pressures easing and core inflation edging down, even as headline inflation accelerated to 3.0 percent from 2.9 percent.
For November, both headline inflation and core inflation (which excludes food and energy) are expected to hold steady at 3.0 percent.
On Friday, the University of Michigan will publish its final consumer sentiment reading for December. Earlier in the month, the index ticked up to 53.3 from November’s 51—still the second-lowest reading on record—with the university noting that “the overall tenor of views is broadly somber, as consumers continue to cite the burden of high prices.”
What People Are Saying
Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi posted to X: “This is a big week ahead to gauge how the economy is performing—the Bureau of Labor Statistics will provide a government shutdown-delayed read on both jobs and inflation through November. There will surely be more noise than usual in the numbers, given that the BLS surveys were disrupted by the shutdown. However, abstracting from the vagaries of the data, it will likely show that the job market is struggling and that inflation is uncomfortably high. More precisely, payroll employment will be more or less unchanged, as it has since much higher tariffs were announced on Liberation Day in April. And this is before all the revisions to the jobs data are in, which the Federal Reserve suggests means the economy has been consistently losing jobs in recent months.”
Political scientist Todd Belt told Newsweek: “Jobs numbers have been bad and inflation remains a problem. But the most important thing is that voters still believe the economy is on the wrong track. Even though gas prices are down, prices on everything else are still increasing. There is a real risk of ‘stagflation’—poor growth, rising inflation and rising unemployment—on the horizon, and that is what doomed Carter’s presidency.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference after last week’s rate cut: “Although important federal government data for the past couple of months have yet to be released, available public- and private-sector data suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our meeting in October. Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.”
Enrique Diaz-Alvarez, chief economist at financial services firm Ebury, said in a statement shared with Newsweek on Monday: “The fog over the state of the US economy should in large measure dissipate this week. The nonfarm payrolls report on Tuesday is expected to show a labor market that is still generating new jobs, contrary to Powell’s downbeat comments at the Fed’s post-meeting presser last week.”
What Happens Next
More high-profile data arrives next week as well, including the second estimate of third-quarter GDP growth and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index.
