The chances of Donald Trump resigning have jumped on a cryptocurrency-based prediction market after speculation about the president’s health and his limited public appearances over the past week.
Polymarket raised the odds of a resignation when the Trump administration announced there would be an Oval Office news conference at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, without saying what it would be about.
Later, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told Newsweek that “the President will be making an exciting announcement related to the Department of Defense.”
The announcement comes after days of online rumors, including false claims that Trump had died and unverified reports of health problems. Trump pushed back on those stories with a post on Truth Social, and he has been photographed in recent days heading to his golf course.
Why It Matters
Trump’s last public event was a Cabinet meeting on August 26. His absence since then sparked speculation, with some social media users even spreading false claims of his death.
The gap in his schedule may simply be due to the Labor Day weekend. In his first term, Trump often spent August at his Bedminster, New Jersey club—14 days in 2017, 15 in 2018, 14 in 2019, and seven in 2020 during the COVID pandemic, CNN reported.
Speculation was fueled further after Vice President JD Vance told USA Today he was ready to step into the top role if needed, along with news of the unusual Oval Office statement scheduled for Tuesday.
What To Know
Polymarket, based in New York, is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market where people place bets on political events, the economy, and more. During the U.S. election campaign, over $1 billion was bet on whether Kamala Harris or Trump would win, according to Crypto News.
On its page, “Will Trump resign in 2025,” the odds of resignation hovered around 3.3–3.5% throughout August.
That number rose to over 4% Saturday morning after social media chatter about Trump’s absence and false health claims. By Sunday morning, the odds hit 4.5% before dipping slightly below 4%. Later that day, Trump posted on Truth Social that he “never felt better.”
Still, the number stayed above 4% before spiking to 5.7% Monday night after news of the Oval Office statement broke. It climbed overnight to a peak of 10.4% at 1:30 a.m. Tuesday, before dropping back down to 5.4% by 6 a.m.—still higher than earlier in the month.
Some Polymarket users repeated false claims about Trump’s death, while others speculated the unusual Oval Office announcement signaled something major. One user wrote, “Only took 5 minutes to buy at 1c and sell at 2c… loving this market so far,” while another said the odds of it being “a nothing burger are quite high.”
What People Are Saying
White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt: “The President will be making an exciting announcement related to the Department of Defense.”
Mikey Smith of The Mirror posted on X: “People getting very excited about this—but worth remembering the White House has included unspecified ‘announcements’ on the daily schedule twice in the last 3 weeks or so, and both times it was nothing interesting.”
What Happens Next
Reporters will gather for Trump’s Tuesday announcement, which may include questions from the press pool. It’s not described as a formal national address.
Speculation about the president’s health is likely to continue, given that Trump is 79 and the White House revealed in July that he had been diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency.
