President Donald Trump and his economic team regularly answer concerns about the cost of living by pointing to cheaper gasoline compared with his predecessor’s tenure.
For most of 2025, that claim had some truth behind it.
Not anymore.
For the first time since Trump’s second term began, the gap between this year’s gas prices and last year’s has basically vanished.
On Tuesday, the national average price for regular gasoline was $3.055 a gallon — almost identical to the $3.056 average a year earlier under former President Joe Biden, according to AAA.
In fact, Tuesday snapped an eight-day streak during which the national average was higher than it had been a year before, AAA data shared with CNN shows.
That’s a notable shift from earlier in the year, when gas was 30, 40, even 50 cents cheaper than at the same time in 2024.
Although gas prices remain relatively low and well below their 2022 record highs, the recent trend cuts against one of Trump’s central talking points and weakens one of his strongest arguments on affordability.
In a major economic policy speech in Miami on November 6, Trump declared, “Gasoline prices have plummeted to the lowest in two decades.”
In reality, the national average was about $3.08 a gallon — nowhere near a 20-year low and only a few cents below where it stood under Biden the year before.
During an interview on Fox News that aired last Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “Oil and gasoline prices are down substantially under President Trump — and that is really the key to affordability.”
Yet on that day, gas prices were actually three cents higher than they had been a year earlier.
A gap between rhetoric and reality
Many Americans say they see a mismatch between what Trump says about prices and what they’re living through.
A CBS News poll found that 60% of Americans believe Trump makes the situation with prices and inflation sound better than it really is.
Just 27% say he describes things about as they are, while 13% say he makes them sound worse.
Exaggerating complex or fuzzy numbers — like how many trillions of dollars in foreign investment US officials claim to have attracted — is one thing. It’s another to insist that groceries are getting cheaper or that gas prices are plunging when people can see for themselves that isn’t the case.
Gas prices, visible on nearly every street corner, are one of the clearest gauges many Americans use to judge the cost of living. The surge to $5 a gallon after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 sparked public outrage and created a political firestorm for the Biden administration.
Where gas prices are lower — and higher — than last year
Heading into the heavily traveled Thanksgiving weekend, some drivers are getting a bit of relief compared with last year.
Average prices are down significantly year-over-year in Colorado (by 24 cents), Wyoming (19 cents), Hawaii (12 cents), Wisconsin (12 cents), Maryland (9 cents) and North Dakota (9 cents), according to AAA.
But other states are seeing the opposite. Average prices have climbed in Oregon (up 27 cents), Alaska (26 cents), Washington (20 cents), California (16 cents), Idaho (16 cents), Arizona (14 cents), Michigan (9 cents) and Nevada (9 cents).
None of this means gas is broadly expensive under Trump — it isn’t.
GasBuddy estimates the national average price for Thanksgiving will be about $3.02 a gallon, tied for the lowest Thanksgiving level since the pandemic crash in 2020. But the year it’s tied with is 2024, which makes it a weak basis for bragging about superior performance.
“We’re basically in the same neighborhood as last year. It’s virtually the same price,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “Policy hasn’t really done anything.”
When adjusted for inflation, however, Thanksgiving gas prices haven’t been this cheap — outside of the Covid shock — since 2016, according to GasBuddy.
“People don’t feel as bad about filling up their tank because they are making more money,” De Haan said.
Wall Street expects cheaper oil ahead
Some Wall Street analysts think even lower prices could be coming in 2026.
Global oil supply is projected to grow faster than demand next year.
Unless OPEC moves to constrain output, Brent crude prices will likely fall into the low $50s per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year and finish 2026 in the $40s, commodity strategists at JPMorgan Chase wrote in a research report published Monday.
JPMorgan warned that the “outlook worsens” in 2027, with a growing glut pushing Brent crude to an average of just $42 a barrel and dragging prices into the $30s by year-end.
The expected oversupply is so large that JPMorgan says producers will “almost certainly” have to respond by cutting production.
Tom Kloza, a longtime oil-market analyst now at Gulf Oil, also sees a favorable backdrop for drivers next year.
“It’s an easy road in 2026. Everything points to a surplus of crude,” Kloza said. “There are a lot of things Trump faces challenges on. This is not one of them. It may not be a lay-up, but it’s probably a free throw.”
