Social Security is on track to hit a severe financial crisis in just seven years — and retirees could soon feel the sting. According to a new report by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), the program’s trust fund is projected to run dry by the end of 2032, triggering automatic benefit cuts that would slash retirement income for millions of Americans.
For a typical two-earner couple retiring in 2033, that cut could amount to roughly $18,100 per year — a 24% drop in benefits. Even single-earner households could lose about $13,600 annually, while high-income couples might see a loss of up to $24,000.
Famed investor Warren Buffett has long warned of this outcome, calling it a slow-moving but entirely predictable disaster. His repeated calls for reforms — including higher payroll contributions from top earners and a gradual increase in the retirement age — are now echoing more urgently as the clock ticks toward insolvency.
A Ticking Clock
The CRFB analysis paints a stark picture: once Social Security’s retirement trust fund runs out of reserves in 2032, payouts will legally be limited to what’s collected in payroll taxes. That means no congressional action would trigger immediate, across-the-board cuts — not just for new retirees, but for all recipients.
And while Congress could step in at any time, political gridlock and a reluctance to touch Social Security have left the system drifting toward the edge.
Making matters worse, the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) has accelerated the crisis by cutting Social Security’s tax base and increasing deductions for seniors. According to the CRFB, those changes have added about one percentage point to the benefit cut forecast — and if the tax breaks become permanent, the gap will only grow.
By 2100, the CRFB projects the program could be forced to reduce benefits by over 30% without structural reform.
A Broad Impact Across Retirees
The projected cuts won’t fall evenly. Lower-income couples, who rely more heavily on Social Security, could lose around $11,000 annually — a devastating amount for those already on tight budgets. For them, the benefit reduction would consume a much larger share of household income.
While the numbers above are in future dollars, CRFB notes the real impact, adjusted to 2025 dollars, would still be severe — around 15% less, but still deeply disruptive.
Buffett’s Warning
Warren Buffett, who’s stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, has repeatedly stressed that failing to shore up Social Security would be a “major policy failure.” He’s long pushed for eliminating or raising the cap on taxable earnings — currently around $168,600 — arguing that the wealthy, including himself, should pay more into the system.
Buffett has also supported a phased increase in the retirement age, pointing to his own career longevity as evidence that Americans are staying active longer. “We’re living longer and healthier lives — the system needs to reflect that,” he has said in interviews.
Policy Solutions — and Political Stalemates
The CRFB is urging Congress to take action now, rather than waiting for a crisis. The group proposes a mix of policy options: raising the retirement age, adjusting cost-of-living increases, increasing payroll taxes, or introducing new revenue streams — all of which would be better than the abrupt, across-the-board cuts now on the horizon.
Despite its calls for moderation and fiscal sustainability, the CRFB has drawn criticism from both the left and right. Progressive economists like Paul Krugman have dismissed it as a “deficit scold,” while some conservatives fear its proposals would turn Social Security into a welfare-style program rather than an earned benefit.
Still, the organization’s warnings carry weight. Founded in 1981, the CRFB’s board includes respected former officials from the Congressional Budget Office, the Office of Management and Budget, and the Federal Reserve. Its projections are based on official trustee reports and regularly cited in bipartisan budget discussions.
Countdown to 2032
With Social Security facing a $22 trillion shortfall over the long term, the CRFB says every year of delay increases the cost of a fix. And if nothing is done, retirees in 2033 and beyond will face a future very different from the one they’ve been promised.
“The problem isn’t complicated,” Buffett once said. “What’s missing is the political will.”
Unless that changes soon, millions of Americans may be forced to pay the price.
