With Lyle Menendez scheduled to appear before the parole board on Friday, Aug. 22 — just one day after his brother Erik was denied — legal experts say he could face a similar outcome unless notable differences emerge during the hearing.
“I would be surprised if it were different,” former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani tells PEOPLE. “The only reason it would be different would be if his parole commissioners are different.”
Rahmani adds, “It would be really a miscarriage of justice if one brother were paroled and the other were not, because they’re so similarly situated.”
Erik was denied release on Thursday, Aug. 21, more than three decades after the two were convicted of fatally shooting their parents, José and Kitty Menendez, in 1989 at their Beverly Hills, Calif., home.
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Initially sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole, the brothers became eligible for release in May after a Los Angeles judge reduced their sentences to 50 years to life. The change made them eligible for parole because they were under 26 when the murders occurred — Erik was 18 and Lyle was 21.
In explaining the board’s decision to deny Erik parole, Commissioner Robert Barton pointed to his infractions behind bars, reportedly including drug and cellphone use and involvement in a tax fraud scheme, according to The New York Times.
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At their resentencing, Judge Michael Jesic described the brothers as model inmates. Rahmani notes that if Lyle’s conduct in prison differs from Erik’s, it could influence the board’s decision regarding his parole.
“None of these were violent violations, in my opinion, that led the commissioners to think that they pose an unreasonable risk to the public,” Rahmani says.
Barton also described the brothers’ killings as “devoid of human compassion,” telling Erik, “The killing of your mother especially showed a lack of empathy and reason,” according to the outlet.
The brothers have maintained that they acted in self-defense after enduring years of sexual abuse by their father, which they claim their mother knew about but failed to stop. Prosecutors, however, argued the murders were motivated by greed, pointing to their lavish spending spree after the killings.
Rahmani emphasizes that claims of self-defense due to past sexual abuse do not justify the killings under California law.
“Freedom is deadly force,” he says. “You have to be in imminent risk of death or serious bodily injury. And I just don’t think they can prove it.”
Erik must now wait at least three years before he is eligible for another parole hearing. If Lyle is also denied, the brothers still have other potential paths to release — including a habeas corpus petition filed in 2023 seeking to overturn their murder convictions based on newly discovered evidence of past abuse by their father, as well as the possibility of clemency from Gov. Gavin Newsom.
