President Donald Trump’s political capital is evaporating as a domestic energy crisis, fueled by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, sends gasoline prices to levels that threaten the Republican party’s hold on Congress.
Fresh data analyzed by CNN’s Harry Enten reveals a dramatic shift in public sentiment just months before the 2026 midterm elections. The president, who secured a second term largely on a mandate to lower the cost of living, now finds himself “underwater” on the very issues that defined his 2024 victory.
A “Universal Dislike” Among Independents
The polling data presents a grim reality for the White House. According to Enten, Trump’s net approval on gas prices has plummeted to negative 39 points overall. Among Independent voters—the demographic that often decides the fate of the House—that figure collapses further to negative 53 points.
“He is underwater, swimming in the deep blue sea,” Enten noted during a Friday broadcast. “Americans, Independents: They hate, hate, hate the way that Trump is handling gas prices at this point.”
The disillusionment extends beyond the pump. Trump’s net approval on the broader cost of living is now at negative 41 points, a record low for his administration. Among Independents, the trust deficit has widened to a staggering minus 60 points, signaling a near-total collapse of confidence in the administration’s economic stewardship.
The 2024 Reversal
The current figures represent a total reversal of the 2024 election cycle. In October 2024, Trump held a three-point lead over Kamala Harris regarding trust on the economy. Today, that advantage has been replaced by “near universal dislike.”
While the administration has pointed to the February 28 strikes on Iran and the subsequent regional instability as the primary drivers of the $3.79-per-gallon national average, voters appear less interested in geopolitical context than in their shrinking bank accounts.
The Midterm “Red Zone”
For the Republican Party, the historical precedent is unforgiving. Data shows that when a president’s approval rating sits below 50% heading into the spring of a midterm year, their party loses an average of 35 seats in the House of Representatives.
With Trump’s overall approval currently hovering near 41%, the GOP faces a mathematical uphill battle to retain its narrow majority. The “inverted pyramid” of the president’s support—once stabilized by economic promises—is now being squeezed by:
- Surging Energy Costs: Up nearly 30% in a single month.
- Geopolitical Risk: The Iran conflict’s impact on global supply chains.
- Voter Exhaustion: A growing perception that the “Golden Age” of affordability has failed to materialize.
As the administration weighs tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or implementing federal tax waivers, the window for a political rebound is closing. History suggests that once fuel prices sink a presidency, the tide rarely turns in time for the first Tuesday in November.
