Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican from Iowa, has privately signaled that she will not run for reelection in 2026. Her decision could make it more difficult for Republicans to keep control of her Senate seat.
Ernst, 55, was first elected in 2014. She is an Iraq War veteran and the first woman from Iowa elected to Congress.
Newsweek reached out to Ernst’s office for comment.
Why It Matters
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate.
Iowa used to be a swing state, but over the past decade it has leaned more Republican. Several Democrats have already announced campaigns for Ernst’s seat.
A recent internal poll from Democratic State Senator Zach Wahls’ campaign shows Ernst trailing Wahls and facing close races against other Democratic challengers.
Ernst’s Plans
According to the Associated Press, Ernst plans to announce in September that she will not seek a third term.
Republican Representative Ashley Hinson is expected to enter the race, a GOP official told CNN.
This news follows Democrat Catelin Drey’s recent victory in a special election, where she flipped an Iowa State Senate seat previously held by Republicans. The district had strongly supported President Donald Trump in 2024.
“We are going to flip this U.S. Senate seat the exact same way that Catelin Drey flipped her state Senate seat,” Wahls said in a video posted on X.
Favorability and Polling
A new poll from Public Policy Polling found Ernst with a -13 net favorability rating. The survey, conducted on August 18 and 19, included 572 Iowa voters.
The same poll showed Wahls leading Ernst by two points (45-43) when voters were given additional information about the candidates. When only the candidates’ names were listed, Ernst held a one-point lead.
Ernst also maintained a narrow lead of under 5 points against other Democratic challengers. The poll’s margin of error was 4.1 percent.
A May survey by Data for Progress also showed Ernst ahead of most Democratic candidates.
Controversy Over Trump’s Bill
Ernst has faced criticism for comments made at a May town hall about Medicaid cuts in the so-called Big Beautiful Bill.
When a participant said people would die without coverage, Ernst replied, “Well, we all are going to die.”
Reactions
- Zach Wahls, Democratic State Senator, on X: “Joni Ernst saw the writing on the wall. Iowans are fed up with rising costs and unchecked corruption. And next year, we’re going to flip this seat.”
- Josh Turek, Democratic State Representative, on X: “Whether it’s Joni Ernst or someone else, they’ll have to answer for supporting cutting Iowans’ healthcare in favor of a tax break for billionaires.”
- Nathan Sage, Democratic Knoxville Chamber of Commerce Executive Director, on X: “Joni ‘We’re All Going to Die’ Ernst is bowing out of this race, because she knows what we’ve known for a long time — Iowa is WINNABLE!”
- Jackie Norris, Democratic Des Moines School Board Chair, on X: “Joni Ernst can run from the mess she created but IA families will still be paying the price for her votes to slash Medicaid and health care funding to pay for handouts to billionaires.”
What’s Next
Ernst has not yet confirmed publicly that she will step aside in 2026.
