Donald Trump capitalized on Americans’ frustration with inflation and economic anxiety to secure a surprising reelection victory in 2024. One year later, a new wave of Democrats, including New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, rode voter concerns about affordability to an even more unexpected political surge.
Recent polling suggests the inflation shock of 2021–23 left a lasting imprint on public sentiment.
A long-running Gallup survey found that only 59.2% of U.S. adults expect to enjoy a high-quality life within the next five years — the lowest level recorded since Gallup began tracking the metric nearly two decades ago.
The survey, based on four quarterly measurements taken throughout 2025 and including responses from 22,125 adults, revealed a 3.5-percentage-point decline compared with 2024.
“If you look at optimism about future life, it dropped sharply between 2021 and 2023, which closely aligns with the peak of the inflation crisis,” said Dan Witters, research director of Gallup’s National Health and Well-Being Index. “Economic pressures — being able to afford essentials like food, fuel, and health care — can have a significant negative effect.”
Optimism peaked at 67.3% in 2021 but slid to 61.9% by 2023 following several years of elevated inflation.
The study also found that the share of Americans classified as “thriving” — those who rate both their present and future lives highly — fell to 48%. That figure represents a decline of more than 11 points from its high in June 2021 and ranks as the sixth-lowest reading among 176 measurements recorded since 2008. The last time the rating was lower was April 2020, shortly after the COVID-19 pandemic began disrupting daily life.
Multiple factors appear to be weighing on Americans’ outlook. Over recent years, inflation, domestic tensions, economic uncertainty, and political instability have contributed to growing pessimism. Confidence in job prospects has weakened, while homeownership remains increasingly out of reach for younger generations. At the same time, a widening K-shaped economy continues to deepen financial divides.
“Their optimism for the future is eroding,” Witters noted. “And it’s declining faster than how people evaluate their current lives.”
Inflation, politics, and persistent pessimism
Even as inflation eased in 2024 — falling to 2.5% year over year by August — optimism failed to rebound significantly. Witters attributed much of the lingering pessimism to political dynamics.
“In 2025, we saw a steep drop among Democrats while Republican sentiment remained largely unchanged. Those shifts didn’t offset each other, resulting in a net negative overall.”
Gallup has historically observed sharp swings in life evaluations when White House control changes. Among Democrats, expectations for a high-quality future life fell by 7.6 percentage points compared with 2024. For comparison, Republican optimism dropped 5.9 points after Joe Biden took office in 2021, while Democratic optimism rose 4.4 points.
Among Republicans, however, optimism edged up by just 0.9 points last year. Independents experienced a 1.5-point decline.
“Partisanship clearly plays a role in shaping national sentiment,” Witters said.
Gallup asked respondents to rate their quality of life using a ladder scale from zero to 10, where zero represents the worst possible life and 10 the best.
By race and ethnicity, Hispanic adults recorded the sharpest decline in optimism, falling six points year over year. White adults saw a 4.6-point drop, while optimism among Black Americans declined by 2.2 points.
