A slim majority of Americans now say the economy is worse under President Donald Trump than it was under former President Joe Biden, according to new national polling.
A White House spokesperson previously told Newsweek that Trump is delivering by “every metric,” arguing that “inflation has cooled, GDP growth is accelerating, and the border is sealed.”
Why It Matters
Trump returned to office promising to restore economic competence, betting that voters who credited him with pre-pandemic prosperity would again trust his stewardship.
With the midterms approaching, even small changes in economic sentiment could shape turnout, party enthusiasm, and control of Congress.
What To Know
A new Harvard CAPS–Harris Poll suggests the country remains uneasy about the economy and deeply split over what’s driving current conditions.
The late-January survey—conducted online January 28–29, 2026, among 2,000 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX—found that 53 percent of voters believe the economy is worse today than it was under Biden, while 47 percent say it is better. That represents a three-point slide for Trump since December.
With a margin of error of plus or minus 1.99 percentage points, the movement is modest but statistically meaningful, pointing to a gradual cooling in the optimism that marked Trump’s early months back in office.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents—63 percent—said the “current state of the economy” is mostly due to the policies of the Trump administration, while 37 percent attributed it to Biden’s handling of the economy. That marks an 11-point drop since December in the share blaming Biden, undercutting the administration’s argument that Trump is still cleaning up an inherited mess and suggesting voters increasingly hold him responsible for conditions they view negatively.
The same polling series also showed a reversal in how voters compare the two presidents’ performance. In February 2025, 58 percent said Trump did a better job as president and 42 percent said Biden did. By January 2026, 51 percent chose Biden and 49 percent chose Trump—an overall nine-point swing.
There were, however, signs of slightly improving sentiment beneath the broader pessimism. The share of voters who said the economy is on the right track ticked up to 38 percent from 36 percent in December. More than a third also said their personal financial situation is improving.
That individual-level improvement hasn’t translated into broad national confidence. Only 38 percent said the country is on the right track overall, and voters were nearly evenly split on whether the economy is strong (51 percent) or weak (49 percent), highlighting a polarized reading of the same environment.
Pollsters often watch the gap between personal finances and national mood closely. When people feel their own situation is improving but still rate the overall economy poorly, perceptions can be shaped heavily by partisan cues, political messaging, and news narratives. It can also signal that opinions may shift quickly as day-to-day costs, wages, and prices change.
The shift toward saying the economy is “worse” under Trump appears to align with other patterns in the Harvard CAPS–Harris series:
- Trump’s overall approval fell two points in January
- His weakest ratings were on inflation and trade
- Voters overwhelmingly cited inflation as their top issue
Taken together, the numbers suggest a familiar dynamic: even small price increases—or the perception of them—can weigh quickly on economic evaluations, often faster than improvements like wage growth or lower unemployment are felt.
For Democrats, the 53–47 split offers an opening in an economic debate Trump has long tried to dominate. For Republicans, it’s an early warning that confidence in Trump’s economic stewardship may be softening, even as many of his policies remain popular.
The survey used opt-in web-panel recruitment, with results weighted by standard demographics and propensity to be online.
What People Are Saying
Trump wrote on Truth Social last week: “My polling is highest ever. Thank you!”
In a separate post, he added: “Fake and Fraudulent Polling should be, virtually, a criminal offense… I am going to do everything possible to keep this Polling SCAM from moving forward!”
White House spokesperson Kush Desai previously told Newsweek via email: “President Trump campaigned on fixing Joe Biden’s economic disaster and border crisis. By every metric, he is delivering—inflation has cooled, GDP growth is accelerating, and the border is sealed.
“Instead of covering how far America has come in just one year, the media has fixated on one contrived scandal after another. President Trump is most in his element when he’s with the everyday Americans who propelled him to office, and the President will continue delivering results and cutting out the Fake News middleman to tout what he has and continues to do for the American people.”
Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris poll and Stagwell chairman and CEO, said: “President Trump’s ratings are slowing declining with Americans seeing the economy sagging and inflation raging, even though economic statistics show the opposite.”
Republican pollster Daron Shaw said: “The president faces two difficult obstacles—the virtually unanimous and intractable opposition of Democrats and the stubbornness of high prices.”
Republican pollster Patrick Allocco told Newsmax that Trump “continues to draw support beyond the Republican base,” citing “30 percent of independents” and “4 percent of Democrats,” while adding that “59 percent of blue-collar workers are still with him: that’s huge going into the midterms.” He also said the Trump team is struggling to connect with women ages 21 to 44.
Allocco added: “If you were against his economic policies, if you’re against his foreign policies, if you’re against his immigration policies, chances are you didn’t vote for President Trump in 2024. What we’re seeing right now is … this uprising of anger that’s bubbling up to the surface.”
What Happens Next
Both parties are likely to focus on persuadable voters by emphasizing affordability, wage gains, and price stability.
If views of the economy remain split—and more voters continue to feel their personal finances improving—neither party may gain a clear advantage on economic leadership. In that case, the midterm outcome could hinge on turnout and whether late-breaking economic perceptions shift opinions in key House and Senate races.
