California Governor Gavin Newsom and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly have emerged as the early frontrunners for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, according to a new Yale Polling survey. The data highlights a significant “electability” deficit for former Vice President Kamala Harris, who currently trails billionaire Mark Cuban and several cabinet members in the eyes of party faithful.
The survey, which measures perceived electability among Democratic voters, places Newsom at the top with 72%. Senator Mark Kelly follows closely at 70%, bolstered by his profile as a retired astronaut and moderate western Democrat.
The battle for the third tier remains competitive:
- Gov. Andy Beshear (KY): 64%
- Gov. JB Pritzker (IL): 64%
- Pete Buttigieg: 61%
- Mark Cuban: 58%
In a stark indicator of her current standing, only 55% of Democrats view Harris as a highly electable candidate for 2028. This follows her recent confirmation that she is “thinking about” another run despite her 2024 loss to President Donald Trump.
While Harris struggles with the general party base, she maintains a stronghold among younger voters. Democrats aged 18 to 34 rank her second overall at 61%, trailing only Newsom (65%). Conversely, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez saw a dip in support among this demographic, polling at 47% compared to 50% with the broader party.
Several prominent figures face an uphill climb in visibility and perceived viability. Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger and former Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel sit at the bottom of the list at 29%. Other notable low-performers include Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (39%) and Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock (34%).
On the Republican side, the hierarchy is significantly more consolidated. Vice President JD Vance commands the field with an 83% electability rating. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (76%) and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (74%) round out the top three.
The Republican data suggests a clear preference for the current administration’s inner circle:
- Sen. Ted Cruz: 70%
- Donald Trump Jr.: 65%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 62%
Young Republicans mirrored the general base’s support for Vance but signaled a preference for DeSantis (75%) over Rubio (61%). At the bottom of the GOP rankings, Senator Katie Britt (18%) and Kristi Noem (20%) struggle to find a foothold with the electorate.
As the 2028 cycle begins to take shape, these figures suggest a Democratic Party searching for fresh leadership at the state level, while the Republican base remains largely unified behind the current executive branch.
