Russia is laying the groundwork for a prolonged military confrontation that may extend far beyond Ukraine, according to defense experts, who point to sweeping legislative changes, major budget increases, and signs of full-scale mobilization across Russian society.
“There is a total mobilization of politics, economy, and society of the Russian Federation to be ready for the upcoming large-scale war,” said Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, during an address at the annual Ukrainian Ambassadors meeting.
On July 22, Russia’s lower house of parliament introduced legislation to overhaul the country’s military conscription system. Under the proposed law, conscription would become a year-round process rather than occurring in spring and fall cycles, a change that defense analysts view as a potential “stealth mobilization.”
That same day, Budanov revealed that Moscow has already formed two new military districts — one in Moscow and another in Leningrad — as part of broader preparations. He also said the Kremlin plans to inject $1.1 trillion into military and defense spending over the next 11 years.
Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said these developments signal more than just an effort to sustain the war in Ukraine.
“All of these components — new military districts, changes in mobilization and defense spending — are suggesting that Russia is preparing for a protracted war, not just in Ukraine but also against NATO,” Stepanenko told the Kyiv Independent.
Ukrainian defense expert Denys Popovych said the bill’s passage is almost certain and would effectively serve as a quiet but far-reaching mobilization effort. Stepanenko added that the Kremlin is playing the long game, avoiding sudden escalations that might provoke domestic unrest while counting on Western support for Ukraine to wane.
“The Kremlin’s theory of victory is that it can outlast Western support and Ukrainian resistance,” she said.
Russia has reportedly lost more than one million troops since the start of the invasion in 2022, with over 1,000 soldiers killed on July 29 alone, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense.
Amid these developments, President Donald Trump has issued a sharply reduced timeline for Russia to initiate peace efforts. Speaking during a trip to Scotland, Trump warned that Putin has “10 or 12 days” to make progress toward ending the war, down from an earlier 50-day deadline.
“If you know what the answer is going to be, why wait?” Trump said. “It would be sanctions and maybe tariffs, secondary tariffs. I don’t want to do that to Russia. I love the Russian people.”
Trump also expressed disappointment with President Vladimir Putin, adding pressure for de-escalation.
In response, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned that each new ultimatum from the U.S. amounts to a “threat” and a further step toward war.
As tensions escalate, both rhetoric and military preparations suggest that the conflict’s scope could soon expand — and that the Kremlin is planning for exactly that.
