President Donald Trump’s once-ironclad grip on the Republican base is showing unprecedented signs of strain. For the first time since the start of his second term, the President’s approval rating among registered Republicans has fallen below the 80% threshold, according to new data released Wednesday by the Marquette Law School Poll.
The survey, conducted between April 8 and April 16, reveals that Republican support for the President now stands at 78%. This represents an 11-point slide from the beginning of his second term in February 2025, signaling a potential shift in intraparty leverage as the nation nears critical midterm elections.
A New Floor for the Second Term
The erosion of support is not limited to the GOP base. Trump’s overall national approval rating has hit a second-term low of 39%, while 60% of Americans express disapproval. This downward trajectory follows a steady decline from 48% in February 2025 and 42% in January 2026.
The data suggests the President is struggling to maintain his “incumbency advantage” amid a volatile geopolitical and economic landscape.
Policy Underwater
The Marquette poll highlights a significant disconnect between the administration’s messaging and public sentiment on several key fronts:
- Foreign Policy: Public approval is underwater regarding the ongoing war with Iran.
- The Economy: Despite White House claims of “historic progress,” voters expressed deep concern over the cost of living and inflation.
- The Outlier: Border security remains the President’s only net-positive issue, holding a 52% approval rating against 47% disapproval.
These headwinds are further compounded by record-low support among Gen Z and independent voters, two blocs essential for maintaining congressional majorities this fall.
Strategic Implications
Political analysts suggest that the cooling of Republican enthusiasm could dampen voter turnout and embolden primary challengers or dissent within the ranks of Congressional leadership. If the 78% figure represents a trend rather than a statistical outlier, the GOP faces a heightened risk of losing control of one or both chambers of Congress.
The White House Response
The administration remains publicly dismissive of the polling data. White House spokesman Davis Ingle characterized the figures as secondary to the President’s 2024 electoral mandate.
“The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump,” Ingle said. He asserted that the President is “working tirelessly” on a “popular and commonsense agenda,” citing efforts to cool inflation and increase housing affordability.
The Marquette poll surveyed 982 adults nationwide and carries a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
