President Donald Trump’s signature legislative achievement—dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”—is expected to increase the national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, according to a new analysis released Monday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
The sweeping 887-page law, passed exclusively with Republican votes and signed into law by Trump on July 4, also risks leaving 10 million more Americans without health insurance by 2034, the CBO projected.
Republicans pushed the bill through with razor-thin margins: 51-50 in the Senate with Vice President J.D. Vance casting the tie-breaking vote, and 218-214 in the House. The final version included last-minute amendments to secure GOP support.
What’s in the Bill
The legislation extends key provisions of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and introduces new deductions for tips and overtime pay for four years. It also includes hundreds of billions in new spending on the military and Trump’s mass deportation agenda.
To offset some of the cost, the bill cuts funding from Medicaid, food assistance (SNAP), and clean energy programs—amounting to $1.1 trillion in net spending reductions. However, the CBO found that these cuts are dwarfed by the $4.5 trillion in lost revenue, resulting in a substantial increase in the deficit.
Political Fallout
Republican leaders have framed the bill as a win for working Americans and a necessary move to prevent a tax hike when many provisions of the 2017 tax law were set to expire. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said the bill would lead to “higher wages, more opportunity, and more economic growth,” predicting it would help Republicans gain seats in the 2026 midterms.
“This is a bill written for hard-working Americans, especially middle- and lower-income earners,” Johnson told NBC News earlier this month. “And the border will be secure. We’ll have American energy dominance again.”
When asked whether the bill could cost Republicans politically, Johnson replied, “No concerns at all. In fact, it’s going to gain seats for us. We’re that confident.”
Criticism and Polling
Democrats, meanwhile, are seizing on the CBO report to attack the bill as a massive tax giveaway to the wealthy—paid for in part by cuts to health care and food aid. Polls show the legislation is unpopular with the broader public, especially among independents and lower-income voters.
In addition to the projected rise in the uninsured rate, the CBO noted the bill would reduce average premiums for ACA benchmark plans by just 0.6% by 2034—a marginal drop unlikely to change affordability for most consumers.
The long-term fiscal impact, combined with its social spending cuts, ensures the “Big Beautiful Bill” will remain a flashpoint heading into the 2026 elections.
