Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick issued a rare and blunt warning to the Republican establishment Wednesday, admitting the GOP faces a “tough time” defending its majority in the Texas House this November.
Speaking at the Texas Public Policy Foundation’s annual conference, Patrick signaled deep-seated anxiety over a fractured party base and the rising momentum of Democratic challengers. The remarks mark a significant shift in rhetoric from one of the state’s most powerful conservative firebrands, highlighting a potential vulnerability in a long-held Republican stronghold.
The crux of the GOP’s instability lies in a bruising Senate primary runoff between incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Patrick characterized the internal “mudslinging” as a gift to Democratic nominee James Talarico, an Austin state representative who secured his party’s nod in March.
Patrick demanded that the loser of the May 26 runoff immediately pivot to support the winner, warning that a failure to unify would not only cost the Senate seat but also endanger down-ballot candidates.
“Get over it and come together as one,” Patrick told the crowd. “We’re going to have a tough time holding the Texas House.”
The stakes are high. Republicans currently control 88 of the 150 seats in the lower chamber. Democrats, emboldened by a 2018 cycle where they flipped 12 seats, need a 14-seat gain to seize the majority for the first time since 2003.
While Patrick maintained that the state Senate remains “in good shape” with its 20-11 GOP advantage, he emphasized that the House is the primary battlefield. Recent special election data supports his unease; Democrats recently captured a deep-red Senate district that Donald Trump had carried by 17 points in 2024.
The admission of GOP fragility drew immediate fire from within the party. House Speaker Dustin Burrows (R-Lubbock) countered Patrick’s narrative on social media, vowing that Republicans “will not lose the Texas House.”
“We will fight to retain every Republican seat,” Burrows said, pivoting the focus to Texas’ economic prosperity under GOP leadership.
However, Democrats view Patrick’s candor as a confirmation of their internal polling. State Rep. Christina Morales (HOU), chair of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, cited public backlash against school vouchers and federal deportation efforts as primary drivers for a blue shift.
“Dan Patrick is telling Republicans they’re in trouble… and for once, he’s telling the truth,” Morales said.
Patrick, who is seeking a fourth term, will face either state Rep. Vikki Goodwin or union leader Marcos Vélez in the general election. His warning serves as a high-stakes directive to a party that has not lost a statewide race since 1994, but now finds its legislative grip tightening under the weight of internal discord.
